Will Brazil Remain the Country of the Future?

          This post is a summary of three articles. The first with the title above, published in October 2012 at http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/10/growth. The second with the title of, "When will fast growth return to Latin America? It was published in May 2014 at http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2014/05/09-growth-return-latin-america-levy. The third with the title of, "Brazil`s economic model: In need of a revamp." Published  https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2014/january/brazils-economic-model-in-need-of-a-revamp/.

            The question of whether the Mexico economy might one day regain the top spot in the Latin America has once again become an interesting one. In a recent report Benito Berber, Latin America strategist applies Solow growth accounting to a series of forecasts on Mexico and Brazil, with striking results. Solow splits the factors to economic growth into three categories: human capital or (worker skill levels), physical capital, and total factor productivy. Brazil may have become too dependent on commodity-led growth. While moving resources to the commodity sector allowed Brazil to exploit a comparative advantage, many now see limited opportunity to improve total factor productivity, something which is usually limited to manufacturing. Mr Berber concludes that under a low growth estimate for Brazil and a high growth estimate for Mexico, the countries cross economic paths in 2022. This is of course highly speculative, forecasting a decade ahead is difficult. Yet that such outcomes seem reasonable is remarkable given the conventional wisdom just a few years ago. If the Mexican economy is to one day take over the Brazilian, it would be a boon for liberal economics in the face of Brazil`s more statist approach. Yet do not expect Brazil to give up the top spot easily. Indeed, a friendly rivalry may benefit both countries`s reform agendas.

             From 2003 to 2008, Latin America experienced an annual average growth rate of 4.7%. As a result of the global financial crisis, during 2009-2010 the region`s growth rate declined to 2.4%. However, for the period 2011-2013 it increased to only 3.5% and for 2014 the expectation is that it will drop again to 2.7%. It is thus increasingly clear that Latin America`s mediocre growth performance can no longer be attributed to the global financial crisis, but, rather, is a reflection of deeper issues intrinsic to the region. Unless these challenges are tackled, it is unlikely that Latin America will repeat the growth performance observed in the first years of this century. In the context of macroeconomic stability, high and sustained growth is associated with productivity growth, and in this that Latin America faces its greatest challenge. Unfortunately, the region`s achievements in terms of better macroeconomic management have yet to translate into improved productivity numbers. Why does productivity lag behind in Latin America? There is broad agreement that three elements are critical for raising productivity. First, a country`s human capital, the education and skills of its workers must be high. Second, the labor market, where the interactions of firms and workers translate into how much value is produced, must function well. Third, saving rates must be high in order to support investments, particularly in infrastructure. Evidence points to large gaps between Latin America and other regions of the world in indicators of human capital. The PISA exams provide measures of educational achievement comparable between countries. The Latin America countries all fell in the lowest third of the rankings, and seven out of the eight fell below the minimum levels of competency in mathematics. Data on workers`skills are even scarcer, but there are show low investments in developing workers`abilities. Measuring performance in labor merket is even more difficult, but a central feature of latin America is its high rate of informal employment. On average, more than half of the region`s labor force is informally employed. Informality is an enemy of productivity. The resulting dispersion of economic activity into a myriads of small and often illegal firms is an environment that is hardly conducive for exploiting economies of scale and scope, access to credit, applying modern management techniques, training workers, and innovating, in short, for increasing productivity. Finally, the region`s saving rates are low compared to other developing countries. The country with the highest saving rate in L. A. saves less as a share of GDP than the country with the lowest saving rate in emerging Asia. Because high and persistent current account deficits can not be sustained for very long, low savings translate into low rates of investment, mainly in infrastructure. It is estimated that to develop an infrastructure comparable to that of its competitors, L.A. should be investing 2% more of its GDP than what it currently does. While in some countries demand management may yet produce short-term growth spurts, these policies are not substitutes for addressing the factors behind stagnant productivity. In the years ahead accelerating growth in L.A. will be doubly challenging. On the macro side, countries have to pay attention to fiscal issues. On the micro side, L.A. countries need to urgently accelerate productivity growth, which is not an easy task as policies to do are complex.

              The recent performance of the Brazilian economy has been disappointing. GDP grew by only 0.9% in 2012, after the low 2.7% of 2011, and the economy is likely to have grown by only 2.5% in 2013. In this economic report we conclude that consumption and commodity exports can not continue to drive growth. To reinvigorate its economic model, Brazil needs to increase investment and productivity. While strong external demands thus contributed to growth, Brazil`s growth became increasingly domestic driven. Despite a record cut in interest rates between the summer of 2011and 2012, gross fixed investment fell by 4%. Meanwhile, in 2013 comsuption growth, which until recently continued to remain vigorous, has also weakened. Does this mark the end of the Brazilian growth model? The short answer seems yes, as the factors that boosted growth in the preceding decade are unlikely to drive growth as much in the coming years. The quality of the labor force will also determine Brazil`s future growth. Brazil needs to raise investment, and savings, to deal with supply constraints. Increasing investment, productivity and the quality of the labor force is likely to be difficult, given `s weak track record. We will have to look at a number of structural issues. Dealing with these problems could open the door to faster growth.

             

GDP Growth 2013 and GDP growth 2011-2013

          This post is a summary of four reports. The data about the GDP growth of 2013 was published at http://www.quandl.com/economics/real-gdp-growth-by-country. The GDP growth of 2011 and 2012 was published at http://www.worldbank.org/. The first article with the title of, "Latin America and Caribbean overview." It was published http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/lac/overview. The second report with the title of, "Report on the Latin America Economy: First Half of 2014."  It  was published in April http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/InformesBoletinesRevistas/BoletinEconomico/14/Abr/Files/art2e.pdf

          As economic conditions in advanced economies improve in 2014 and beyond, the economic outlook is fairly upbeat for Latin America. With growth strengthening steadily from 2.9% in 2014 and 3.2% in 2015, the region`s expected average growth is up from last year`s modest 2.5%. On the other hand, the continued decline in commodity prices threatens to reduce export revenues in 2014. Food and metal prices have declined by 14% and 47%, respectively, since their 2011 peaks. What is more, capital flows to the region are projected to decline by 3.7% in 2014 as a result of the U.S. tapering its quantitative easing program. This is likely to impact domestic demand and ease GDP growth. Brazil and Mexico are projected to grow 2.4% and 3.4% respectively. Mexico`s reform agenda has fueled investor optimism, whereas Brazil would be in the same position as last year. The forecasted top growth performers for 2014 include Panama 7.3% and Peru 5.5%. Elsewhere in the region, rates are expected to remain robust with many countries likely to grow between 3% - 5% in 2014.

           Against this background of weaker commodities prices, and with the output gap having closed in some of the region`s main economies, the second half of 2013 saw a slowdown in activity in Latin America. In 2012, only Argentina and Brazil showed lower growth rates, influenced by domestic factors, in 2013, the slowdown has progressively passed through to other countries, such as Venezuela, Mexico. In any event, Chile, Colombia and Peru, has maintained growth far above the average. The Brazilian economy, for its part, appears to have settled into a low growth rate which, viewed positively, may contribute partially to correcting its external imbalances. Some countries retain the capacity to pursue countercyclical policies, such as, Peru, Colombia, Chile, which in the absence of inflationary pressures, have been able to keep their policies accomodative and to assume the depreciation of their currency. In brazil, however, this leeway seems more limited at present owing to persistent inflation. During the years of expansion, Brazil has barely progressed in introducing the structural reforms needed to raise productivity, such as developing infrastructure or simplifying its tax system and bureaucracy, it has constrained its investment ratio, which has remained among the lowest in the region (18% of GDP). When in 2011 activity cooled and certain imbalances widened, structural rigidities surfaced, prompting a revision of growth expectations. The IMF, in this latest analysis lowered its potential growth to 3.5%. The external deficit is perceived by investors as another source of vulnerability. The current account balance of Brazil has deteriorated since 2008 to a deficit of -3.6% of GDP in 2013. But it also reflects Brazil`s loss of competitiveness. In any event, the Brazilian economy has significant strengths which mitigate many of the risks mentioned. The economic policy framework is a strenght despite its recent deterioration, with a central bank whose objective is inflation control, a flexible exchange rate and adherence to a law of fiscal responsibility. Also, government debt now has a more sustainable structure, with only a small proportion denominated in foreign currency. Nevertheless, the constraints on growth are palpable and will make it difficult for the economy to grow sustainable and robustly in the coming years unless new structural reforms are introduced.

            In the first column, on the left, the GDP growth of 2013 in Latin America countries, from highest to lowest. In the column of the middle, the GDP growth of 2013 in some countries of the world. In the third column, on the right, the average GDP growth of 2011-2012-2013 in Latin America countries. The column is  from highest to lowest. In this list, we can see that Brazil has on average, the lowest GDP growth in the last three years among all countries of Latin America.

       

   GDP 2013 Lat. Am. Count.       Other  Countries        Average GDP 2011-2013
    Paraguay  13.0%                        Mongolia  11.8%                   Panama  9.8%
    Panama  8.0%                            Laos  8.1%                          Peru  6.0%
    Bolivia  6.8%                               China  7.7%                         Bolivia  5.7%
    Peru  5.1%                                 Mozambique  7.2%              Ecuador  5.7%
    Guyana  4.8%                               Philippines  7.2%                 Paraguay  5.3%
    Suriname  4.6%                          Kazakhstan  6.0%              Chile  5.2%
    Colombia  4.3%                            Indonesia  5.8%                  Argentina  5.0%
    Ecuador  4.2%                             Malaysia  4.7%                  Colombia  5.0%
    Chile  4.2%                                    India  4.5%                        Guyana  5.0%
    Nicaragua  4.2%                          Turkey  4.3%                     Nicaragua  4.9%
    Argentina  4.2%                             U.S.A  1.9%                      Uruguay  4.8%
    Uruguay  4.2%                             U.K.  1.8%                         Costa Rica  4.3%
    Guatemala  3.7%                          Japan  1.6%                         Suriname  4.3%
    Costa Rica  3.5%                          Russia  1.3%                      Guatemala  3.6%
    Brazil  2.3%                                 Germany  0.6%                   Venezuela  3.6%
    Mexico  1.1%                                 France  0.3%                     Mexico  2.9%
    Venezuela  1.0%                             Italy  -1.8%                         Brazil  1.9%

 

Literature Makes Us Smarter and Nicer

                This post is a summary of three articles. The first with the partial title above and the complete title of, "Reading literature makes us smarter and nicer." Published at http://ideas.time.com/2013/06/03/why-we-should-read-literature/. The second with the title of, "The relevence of literary analysis to teaching literature in the EFL classroom." Published at http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ923454.pdf. The third with the title of, "Literary Theory and Schools of Criticism." Published at owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/owlprint/722/

                Gregory Currie, a professor of philosophy at the University of Nottingham, recently arqued in the NY Times that we ought not to claim that literature improves us as people, because there is no "compelling evidence that suggests that people are morally or socially better for reading." Actually, there is such evidence. Raymond Mar, a psychologist at York University in Canada, and Keith Oatley, a professor of cognitive psychology at the University of Toronto, reported in studies published in 2006 and 2009 that individuals who often read fiction appear to be better able to understand other people, empathize with them and view the world from their perspective. A 2010 study by Raymond Mar found a similar result in young children: the more stories they had read to them, the keener their "theory of mind", or mental model of other people`s intentions. "Deep reading" - as opposed to the often superficial reading we do on the web - is an endangered practice, one we ought to take steps to preserve as we would a historical building. Its disappearance would imperil the intellectual and emotional development of generations growing up online, as well as the perpetuation of a critical part of our culture: the novels, poems and other kinds of literature that can be appreciated only by readers whose brains have been trained to apprehend them. Recent research in cognitive science, psychology has demonstrated that deep reading, slow, immersive, rich in sensory detail and emotional and moral complexity, is a distinctive experience, different from the mere decoding of words. That immersion is supported by the way the brain handles language rich in detail, allusion and metaphor: by creating a mental representation that draws on the same brain region that would be active if the scene were unfolding in real life. The emotional situations and moral dilemmas that are the stuff of literature are also exercise for the brain, propelling us inside the heads of fictional characters. The deep reading of books and the information-driven reading we do on the web are very different, both in the experience they produce and in satisfying. Unlike the ability to understand and produce spoken language, which under normal circumstances will unfold according to a program dictated by our genes, the ability to read must be acquired by each individual. The combination of fast, fluent decoding of words and slow, unhurried progress on the page gives deep readers time to enrich their reading with reflection, analysis, and theirown memories and opinions. it gives them time to establish an intimate relationship with the author. This is not reading as many young people are coming to know it. Their reading is pragmatic and instrumental: the difference between what literary critic Frank Kermode calls "carnal reading" and  "spiritual reading." If we allow our offspring to believe carnal reading is all there is, if we do not open the door to spiritual reading, through an early insistence on discipline and practice, we will have cheated them of an enjoyable experience. And we will have deprived them of an elevating and enlightening experience that will enlarge them as people. 

              For many teachers of English as a foreign language (EFL), the study of literature is indispensable because it exposes students to meaningful contexts that are replete with descriptive language. Teaching literature also appeals to their imagination, develops cultural awareness and encourages critical thinking about plots, themes, and characters. Many theories exist on how to evaluate literature. One criticism of using literature in the EFL classroom deals with the overuse of those classical, literary works that often contain language that is difficult for a learner of English. The teachers should consider literature that students can access and relate to. A positive change in students attitudes towards literature happens when there is a connection between their lives and their reading, thoughtful reflection in their answers and interest and curiosity. Critical literacy is valid for students to be conscious of how texts relate to issues of identity, culture, political power, gender, ethnicity, class and religion. 

               A very basic way of thinking about literary theory is that these ideas act as differents lenses critics use to view and talk about literature. These differents lenses allow critics to consider works of literature based on certain assumptions within that school of theory. For example, if a critic is working with  Marxist Criticism, he might focus on how the characters in a story interact based on their economic situation. Many critics use tools from two schools in their works. Our explanations are meant only as starting places for your own investigation into literary theory. Though the timeline below roughly follows a chronological order, we have placed some schools closer because they are so closely aligned. 1)Dramatic Construction.  2) Formalism, New Criticism.  3) Psychoanalytic Criticism.  4) Marxist Criticism.  5) Reader-Response Criticism.  6) Structuralism.  7) Post-Structuralism, Deconstruction.  8) New Historicism, Cultural Studies.  9) Post-Colonial Criticism.  10) Feminist Criticism.  11) Gender, Queer Studies.

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World Press Freedom Day 2014

                Every year on May 3rd, all the world emphasize the importance of the freedom of press. This post is a summary of three articles. The first with the title of, "Secretary-General `s Message for 2014." Published at http://www.un.org/en/events/pressfreedomday/2014/sgmessage.shtml. The second with the title of, "Halftime for the Brazilian press." Published at http://cpj.org/reports/2014/05/halftime-for-brazilian-press-censorship-violence-vicious-cycle-of-impunity.php. The third with the title of, "Press freedom at the lowest level in a decade." It was published at http://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-press/freedom-press-2014#.U29ybYFdXHg

                 Each year on World Press Freedom Day, we reaffirm our commitment to the fundamental freedom to receive and impart information and ideas through any media, regardless of frontiers. Yet every day of the year sees this right under assault. Journalists are singled out for speaking or writing uncorfortable truths - kidnapped, detained, beaten and sometimes murdered. Such treatment is completely unacceptable in a world ever more reliant on global news outlets and the journalists who serve them. Last year 70 journalists were killed and 211 were being held in prison. There must be no impunity for those who target journalists for violence, intimidation or distorted uses of legal procedures to disrupt or impede their work. Free media, traditional and new, are indispensable for development, democracy and good governance. They can promote transparency about goals that governments will adopt, progress as well shortfalls. Social media offer new tools for accelerating citizen participation and economic and social progress. The media`s watchdog function is essential for holding governments, businesses and others to account. On this day, I call on all governments, societies and individuals to actively defend this right as critical factor in achieving development goals.

              Will justice prevail over censorship and violence? Brazil is home to vibrant media, but journalists are regularly murdered with impunity and critical journalists are subject to legal actions that drain resources and censor important stories. After initially failing to recognize the gravity of the threat posed by unchecked violence against the press, Brazilian authorities have taken steps to bring the killers of journalists to justice. These efforts are to be commended, but despite the convictions, the murder rate for journalists has not declined, and Brazil continues to feature on CPJ`s Impunity Index, mired in 11th place on the rankings of countries around the world where the killers of journalists go free. Laws on the books continue to make it possible for powerful figures to bring punitive suits against critical journalists. The political environment surrounding the World Cup is likely to be volatile. Large street protests fueled by anger over the extravagant expenditures on sport stadiums rather than on unmet social needs are expected to resume once the matches get under way. By mid-July, several questions will be answered. The vicious cycle of impunity. In 2012 the murder of a soccer journalist in Goiânia may run counter to the official narrative of success, it reflects the disparate realities of a country as immense as Brazil, and depicts a darker side of "the beautiful game." Human rights abuses and press freedom restrictions were at the forefront of discussions of recent Olympic Games in China and Russia, but many in the international community might be surprised to learn that Brazil is the 11th deadliest country for journalists. The wave of deadly violence has hit provincial journalists much more than their colleagues in major urban centers, a circumstance that may have made the killings easier to ignore. A closer inspection of some of these cases, however, reflects the unique challenges of attaining justice in Brazilians journalists`s murders. The authorities in Brazil often come tantalizingly close to solving the murders, only to see cases evaporate just before the final reckoning. The resolution of the case of murder of Domingos Sávio Brandão. owner and columnist of the daily Folha do Estado in Cuiabá, was by no means swift. It was not until October 2013, 11 years after the crime. The other recent convictions snared only the triggermen. The cases of Edinaldo Filgueira and Décio Sá hold many parallels. Sá was one of the best-known journalists in the state of Maranhão. A marked contrast to the relatively rapid investigation and trial in Décio Sá case is the lack of progress in the case of the less prominent blogger Mario Randolfo Marques Lopes, whose body was found along with that of his companion in Rio de Janeiro state two and half months before Sá murder. Marques had also written about local political corruption and alleged police involvement in criminal activity. The only development in the investigation was the decision to exhume the blogger`s body in February 2013. If anything can be learned from the erratic nature of the Brazilian justice system, it is that the most powerful force for combatting impunity is often the press corps itself. Victor, who founded the Edinaldo Filgueira Institute to promote freedom of expression, said the convictions in the Filqueira case would never have been achieved without the mobilization of bloggers, who put together a conference where they commemorated Filgueira as a patron of all bloggers, and established a National Bloggers day in his honor. A similar form of grass-roots mobilization was used by the Vale do Aço press corps in Minas Gerais state last year. After journalist Rodrigo Neto and photographer Walgney Assis Carvalho were murdered in a period of weeks, a group of local reporters founded the Rodrigo Neto Committe to investigate the killings, and to continue the work the journalist left behind.

                Global press freedom fell to its lowest level in over a decade in 2013, as  hopes raised by the Arab Spring were further dashed by major regression in Egypt, Libia, and Jordan, and marked setbakcs also occurred in Turkey, Ukraine, and a number of countries in East Africa. The year`s decline were driven by the desire of governments to control news content, harassment of journalists covering protest movements or other sensitive stories; restrictions on foreign reporters or tightened constraints on online news outlets and social media. Even more open media environments are not immune to pressure on press freedom. The year featured the most decline of the past decade in the U.S.A., due to government attempts to control official information flows, particularly concerning national security issues; the legal harassment of journalists with regard to protection of sources; and revelations of surveillance by the N.S.A. Disclosure that surveillance was being conducted by governments against ordinary citizens as well as key political figures intensified concerns on a global level about the ability of journalists and others who gather and disseminate news and information to protect sources and maintain their digital privacy.

               

Education and Skills 2.0

                 This post is a summary of a book with the complete title of, " Education and Skills 2.0: New Targets and Innovative Approaches.  Published in January 2014,  at

 http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GAC/2014/WEF_GAC_EducationSkills_TargetsInnovativeApproaches_Book_2014.pdf

                   Yet the reality is that despite impressive progress made in educational systems recently, especially with respect to primary enrolment, enormous challenges remain. This timely book provides an up-to-date statement about the importance of education, with a special emphasis on the education-skills nexus. It does this by taking us on a journey through the life cycle of learning, beginning with the earliest days of life to mature workers, who may want or need to acquire new skills. Given the education is central to most global issues, from economic growth and social welfare to global information technology and entrepreneuship, this topic is highly relevant to the network of global agenda councils. No point in history has education been so essential to the well-being of society. More than ever, the labour market now demands workers who have technical attributes, knowledge and the ability to innovate and adapt to a fast-changing world where workforce compete internationally. The biggest rise in tertiary education ever seen, a 160% increase in global enrolment from 1990 to 2009 is testament to unprecedented demand for education. Crucially, quality does matter, and even it becomes evermore important, young people are too often taught antiquated curricula where the focus on teaching students is what to think, not how to think. Countries need to learn quickly what works and benefit from the best of modern ideas, methods and technology. Indeed, the way countries use their human capital has become an important factor in explaining why some, many of whom are in Asia and Latin America, remain stuck in a "middle-income trap". By the end of the decade, as research by the Mckinsey Global Institute, we will at once be faced with a shortfall of up to 40 million high-skilled workers and a surplus of up to 95 million low-skilled workers. It is evident that urgent action to improve the quality of learning, especially in the developing countries. Education systems must expand to technical education and training, which remains a viable avenue for youth who had poor quality basic education or no chance to acquire skills for work. Education is an enormous contributor to individual and collective development. How does the education-skills nexus work? Employment in the formal sector of an economy depends on an individual having the skills, at the right time, to take advantage of the economic opportunity. The bottom line is that greater alignment of education and job skills is a necessity and that lifelong skills updating is more worthwhile than ever. Actually, the story of the interaction is complex, varying among countries and among youth groups. According to World Bank surveys, 36% of firms in Latin America (69% in Brazil) contend that an "inadequately educated workforce" poses a major constraint to their activity, as do 29% of firms in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. As the global community weighs next steps on the education and skills front, this book aims to provide the latest thinking on the critical importance of education and highlight what can be done to ensure that all people around the world can benefit. We believe that we now need to take a leap to an entirely new order of education that is being facilitated by the advent of the digital age and much more interactivity than the classrooms of the past. The history of education is a core chapter in the story of human progress. It has powerfully shaped improvements in material well-being, as well as the development of human values that define our achievements and guide our behaviour. It is also an unfinished chapter with a multiplicity of paths. The options we choose will naturally reflect our circumstances and our aspirations. How can we deal with the future of our societies, our economies will depend on what the youth of today and those of a decade from now can shape. That world is unlikely to be one where everyone will still have the traditional jobs from the last century. New ways of making things, from 3D printers to robotics, will change the skills needed for manufacturing. New tech, from nanotech to biotech, will change the sorts of skills that will drive the economy. And unimaginably better information flows will empower all those who have the ability to harness them. Most people today see the economic and educational value of English-language proficiency. This view is likely to remain intimately tied to the benefits of the digital age in most countries. For that reason, the demand has grown rapidly, especially as more and more people come online. The pedagogy is not just about teaching. Create bilingual learning materials to help people improve their English skills through self-drive. On the other, it is actively trying to break down psychological barries to the idea of English learning, such as: it is scary, expensive, only for people who have high social status, embarrassing to make mistakes in the presence of others, or a difficult language to learn. Quality broadband, functional literacy and English fluency are the triangle of access that can get anyone today, a virtual front seat to learning from respected professors at Harvard, MIT, Stanford among other top universities. We are moving towards a higher education system where access to affordable quality education is limited more by one`s learning foundation, self-drive and desire to learn. The critical challenge facing the global community is to build new connectors to these learning pathways that would serve masses of people who have so far been denied the opportunities to propel their own learning.