War Set Back the Global Recovery - GDP Growth 2021

                 This post is a summary of the book with the incomplete title above published in April 2022 at https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022

                 Global economic prospects have worsened significantly since our last forecast in January. At the time, we had projected the global recovery to strengthen from the second quarter of this year after a short-lived impact of the Omicron variant. Since then, the outlook has deteriorated, largely because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the sanctions aimed at pressuring Russia to end hostilities. Beyond the immediate humanitarian impacts, the war will severely set back the global recovery, slowing growth and increasing inflation even further. This report projects global growth at 3.6% in 2022 and 2023. Both Russia and Ukraine are projected to experience large GDP contractions in 2022. The economic effects of the war are spreading far and wide, mainly through commodity markets, trade and financial linkages. Because Russia is a major supplier of oil, gas, and metals, and together with Ukraine, of wheat and corn, the current and anticipated decline in the supply of these commodities has already driven their prices up sharply. Even prior to the war, inflation had surged in many economies because of soaring commodity prices and pandemic-induced supply-demand imbalances. Although bottlenecks are expected to eventually ease as production elsewhere responds to higher prices and new capacity becomes operational, supply shortages in some sectors are expected to last into 2023. As a result, inflation is now projected to remain elevated for much longer than previous forecast, in both advanced and emerging markets. An increase of 17.2% in beverage prices and a 21.8% rise in cereal prices drove up the cost of food. Wheat prices rose by 26.4%, as sevre drought in Canada and across the northern plains of the U.S. Looking ahead, a continuation of war in Ukraine, a major producer of wheat and corn could fuel an additional surge in world cereal prices.                                                                                                                                                                     Below the GDP growth in 2021, from the highest growth to the smallest growth. The first column is for countries in the American continent, and the other is for some countries in the rest of the world. As previously forecasted, Guyana had one of the highest GDP growth of the world last year. The same had happened in 2020. Congratulations to our neighboring country.

GDP 2021 in PanAmerican countries                                 Rest of the World

Guyana        19.9%                                                                       Ireland      13.5%          

Panama        15.3%                                                                      Botswana     12.5%

Peru         13.3%                                                                            Turkey       11%

Honduras        12.5%                                                                     India        8.9%                                         

 Chile           11.7%                                                                         Greece        8.3%

Nicaragua         10.3%                                                                    China        8.1%

Colombia        10.6%                                                                      U. K.         7.4%

Argentina        10.2%                                                                       France        7.0%

Guatemala         8.0%                                                                       Italy         6.6%

Costa Rica         7.6%                                                                      Poland        5.7 %

Bolivia             6.1%                                                                     Philippines      5.6%

U.S.A.           5.7%                                                                            Spain         5.1%

Mexico            4.8%                                                                      South Africa       4.9%

Canada           4.6%                                                                       Portugal         4.9% 

Brazil          4.6%                                                                          Australia        4.7 %

Uruguay           4.4%                                                                      Russia         4.7%

Paraguay           4.2%                                                                     Norway        3.9%

Ecuador         4.2%                                                                          Germany         2.8%

Venezuela      -1.5%                                                                            Japan          1.6%

Democracy and Human Rights in Latin America

                   There is not real democracy without respect for all human rights and rule of law. Latin America policymakers have to make human rights more truly respected in the region. For this, we all have to  fight corruption, exclusion in the politics and electoral systems, and impunity when our human rights are violated. For example, the most important human rights, the right to life. The killers must be more punished, so we can have a more peaceful region. Latin America has not done much progress in the fight against violence, something has to be done to lower the homicide rates.  This post is a summary of the report with the title above published in January 2022 at   https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2022/698868/EPRS_BRI(2022)698868_EN.pdf

                     Since the mid-1980, Latin America has enjoyed long and broad democratic expansion, and has made considerable progress with regard to free elections and respect for human rights. Standards vary widely however: while Costa Rica, Uruguay and Chile stand out in all classifications as the most free and democratic, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba remain at the bottom of the table. However, the tide may be turning for this successful 'third democratic wave' in Latin America, as many countries suffer democratic erosion or even backsliding. The progressive decline of democratic indicators in the region has been exacerbated by factors such as the self-interest of the ruling elite or rampant corruption in some countries. The E.U. has contributed to democracy and human rights in the region by sending election observation missions, participating in initiatives such as the Colombia peace process and its implementation. According to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), the greatest change in the 'third wave' of democratisation that began around 1978 has been in Latin America's political culture, as democracy has prospered in the region. The main issue now is not democracy itself, but how to improve it and make it work more effectively (its qualitative aspects). Experts also agree that the situation in the region has improved in general terms: There are more consolidated democracies, more social protection policies. Poverty has been reduced and the middle class has grown. The biggest challenge now is to maintain this process over the medium and long term. Only three countries, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba stand out at the bottom of the table for being authoritarian regimes; and they are also the last in the Human Freedom Index. Also at the near bottom of the table are El Salvador, Guatemala, Bolivia and Honduras, classified as hybrid regimes (characterised to some degree by irregularities in elections, widespread corruption and weak rule of law, frequent harassment of journalists). Despite the positive aspects, most experts agree that this successful 'third democratic wave' in Latin America may be on the wane. In an article on the deteriorating quality of democracy in Latin America, Daniel Zovatto (IDEA) stress that some countries, such as Brazil, have suffered 'democratic erosion' in recent years, while others (Honduras, Guatemala, Paraguay, Bolivia) show different degrees of democratic fragility. Nevertheless, other analysts are more optimistic and believe that, despite increasing populism and polarisation in the region, Latin America democracy is resilient than appearances may suggest: opinion polls show that only around a fifth of Latin Americans might welcome authoritarian government; furthermore, recent decades of democratic experience have consolidated a culture of citizens' rights and political participation. In countries such as Brazil and Mexico, populism is given as the possible reason for the decline. In countries such as Guatemala and Honduras, the problems of democracy reflect the weakness of the state. However, interfence by various governments with the independence of the judiciary and attacks on civil society pose a danger for democracy in the region.The human rights situation in Latin America has also deteriorated in the 2020-2021 period. Latin America was the world's most violent region in 2020, with Venezuela and Honduras in the lead regarding homicides rates (45.6 and 37.6 per 100000 inhabitants, respectively) Mexico was the deadliest country for journalists, with nine killings, followed by Honduras, with four. Mexico recorded over 77000 people reported disappeared , including nearly 5000 in the first nine months of 2020. Brazil was the country recording most killings of trans and gender-diverse people in the world, 152 between September 2019 and September 2020, 40% of the world total. Latin America was also the world's deadliest region for human rights defenders in 2020, with 264 killings; Colombia, with 177 killings, remained the world's most lethal country for human rights defenders; other dangerous countries were Honduras with 20 killings, Mexico with 19 and Brazil with 16. The E.U. is a steadfast supporter of democracy and human rights. The E.U.'s strategic framework on human rights and democracy. 'Building resilient, inclusive and democratic societies and promoting a global system for human rights and democracy are among the five overarching priorities identified in the action plan, which also focuses on the link between global environmental challenges and human rights. There is a worsening crisis of representative democracy in Latin America: trust in legislatures was at a meagre 20%, while trust in political parties fell to just 13% in 2020. Latin America is the third most corrupt region in the world (after Africa and Middle East), it has the highest levels of crime and violence, and the rule of law remains a weak point. Governments' approval ratings have been falling steadily in the last decade, and there is an increasing citizen perception that the political elite rule for the benefit of a privileged minority.

Find Your Voice to Create a Better Society

                   Political rights are human rights, and justice needs all of us. A inclusive political system is essential for any democratic system. We need more political activists, more citizen lobbyists, more people debating the solutions for the problems we face in a daily basis. More candidates without political mandate with real chances to win. More people fighting for justice, peace, freedom of speech, and against corruption, violence and politicians that don't like to hear constructive criticism and don't like to debate our problems. I would really like to thank all the supportive message we are feeling here in Brazil, because like Julian Assange once said, "the feeling of justice is a very strong feeling in the human beings."  This post is a summary of three articles. The first is a book review with the incomplete title above published at https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2017/07/24/book-review-lobbying-for-change-find-your-voice-to-create-a-better-society-by-alberto-alemanno/. The second was published at    https://www.cmasas.org/how-find-your-voice-use-it-daily-life. The third was published at   https://www.amnesty.eu/news/raise-your-voice-for-the-right-to-speak-out/

                    In Lobbying for Change: Find your Voice to Create a Better Society, Alberto Alemano seeks to demystify and democratise the practice of lobbying by inspiring readers to become 'citizen lobbyists'. Serving as both a galvanising wake-up call and an accessible positive and practical guide to those looking to influence public policy. Whether you feel unhappy with the way our societies are working, powerless to make a change or simply tired of being a spectator to a show that is driven by only a few actors, you should read this book. As the author writes:"This is not a academic book. This is a volume to reach a broader audience, and to inspire you." Inspire you to get involved in the mystified world of lobbying and unfashionable machinery of government to become what the author calls a 'citizen lobbyist'. Lobbying means persuading people who hold power to care about an issue. Traditionally monopolised by 'professional lobbyists' who are remunerated by companies, citizen lobbying aims at democratising this activity. By giving you the same means as a professional employs, citizen lobbying has the potential to act as a social equaliser. The reader will certainly feel inspired, empowered and ready for action. Divided into three parts, the book starts with the identification of the problem on the issues of passive citizens, dominant actors and representative democracy. Throughout the book, Alemanno uses quotes from inspiring characters, which orient the reader's attention to the important points being made. The first part is a wake-up call. You face the problem head on and, as a result, you might feel resentful. The question is whether you decide to focus on this unfair reality or break the silence and go on with chapter two. What are your options? Voting and running for office are two main ways of taking part in a democracy, but these face limitations. Alemanno outlines the urgent need to reconnect elected representatives with the public. His book is timely considering current social, economic, and political volatility, and also offers a different perspective to bridge the gap. The real issue, then, seems to have more to do with the lack of knowledge and participation in politics. This where this book might provide a opportunity by playing a missing pedagogical role. Indeed, the novelty of Alemanno's argument is that we encourages ordinary citizens to embrace the change we are asking for. As put by the author: "It is time we turn the widespread criticisms of politics into an active democratic virtue." While you might be thinking that it is not your job to do the job of politicians, you will reap benefits for it. Chapter two demonstrates that citizen lobbying has the potential to harness your talent and maybe unveils a hidden one too. Lobbying for a cause you care about will increase your feeling of belonging to a community, and research referenced also has positive affect on health and wellbeing. Chapter three accounts for the majority of the book, providing a comprehensive 'toolbox' for anyone looking to influence public policy. Alemanno's "Ten Step Citizen Lobbying Guide" is well-explained to lead you in the right direction, provided that the necessary effort and commitment are put in place. There is also an essential introduction to the legislative process, stakeholders mapping, evidence-gathering and other knowledge and techniques essential for maximising one's lobbying chances. Although this guide is helpful and very pedagogical, there are some drawbacks. While the book insinuates that citizen lobbying is accessible and easy to implement, I have some doubts. The ones who need the most change might find it difficult to apply some parts of the guide, such as the research work and evidence-gathering that are essential to starting any lobbying campaign. Although the author argues that lobbying, unlike activism, has the potential to induce systematic change by targeting policymakers, the latter is actually more accessible. To balance this criticism, The Alemanno's message is the importance of solidarity.                                                               The best way to express yourself is found through doing. Try different ways you can think of... You should never close your mind to all the options, even if you think you already have the one you want. Depending on the form of voice you feel most drawn to using, it may be harder to do on a daily basis; so you may have to be resourceful and get creative. If you want to share a message with people that needs to be shared, you could use twitter, facebook or even do a youtube video on the topic you want. As for speaking, just raising your voice is a good way at getting your voice known.                                                                                            Different fights for human rights have been fought over the span of the last cebtury and they have been won. You can have an impact on what is happening. The ability to come in touch with other groups, and other citizens, all over the world, brings out a very strong sense of solidarity. It is important for people to raise their voices about the issues that matter to them as the elections are approaching because, without vocal input from the citizens, we can not hope for any actual change. And it is important to keep those who decide about our rights and our future in check by constantly reminding them that their duty is to follow what the citizens need and ask for. 

50 Ideas for a Better Future

        Everybody seems to agree that for a better future we need to invest more in education, create more opportunities of political participation, a more inclusive politics is essential. Invest more in renewable sources of energy, and more governmental transparency with human rights truly respected.   This post is a summary of a report with the incomplete title above and published at   https://european-youth-event.europarl.europa.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/EYE2016-Report-EN-web.pdf

   1) Matching migrants with the best possible country for their skills and culture would control the impact on labour markets and help improve relations with the local population.                         2) Encourage volunteer schemes to provide a powerful framework for integrating refugees into their new societies.                     3) Allow embassies from all countries to receive asylum requests directly in order to prevent people from dangerous crossings.                       4) Encourage open-minded education. All children should have access to equal opportunities in education, with renewed focus on ensuring tolerance for people from different religions and cultures.              5) Strengthen organisations that offer meaningful activities to people who have lost all sense of meaning in their lives.                     6) Promote events that challenge stigma towards disabled people and help realign popular misconceptions of disabled people in society.                       7) Develop a community app that proposes and debate policy in real-time. The way people participate in their national democracies is changing Whilst digital technologies are encouraging wider debate, disenfranchisement with formal democratic systems is challenging the way policy makers engage with voters. The internet provides a voice to millions and offers opportunities to criticise as well as to listen. Young people are willing to engage in societal issues, and that these positive intentions need to be harnessed to ensure that they translate into greater democratic participation.                   8) Teach advocacy, politics and lobbying in schools to improve democratic participation amongst young people. Young people are willing to engage in societal issues, and that these positive intentions need to be harnessed to ensure that they translate into greater democratic participation.                 9) Improve English in schools to harmonise the many voices of the world.                     10) Improve transparency and accessibility of governmental documents and legislation so people can understand and engage with them.               11) Broaden the scheme to offer young people different routes than higher education.           12) Bridge the gap from education to employment to more opportunities to young people for paid and quality internships.                       13) Improve online career advice and unemployment resources. Further investment needs to be placed in careers centres and more nuanced and holistic career advice should be provided.                14) Centralise collaboration with NGOs to encourage employment and cohesion in tackling issues.                 15) Unify entrepreneurship resources and requirements to help new businesses get started.                 16) Strengthen education and awareness of alternative economic models to boost innovation in this key sector.              17) Pool energy resources and invest in smart-grids to face up growing energy demands. Energy is a crucial factor in ensuring countries are able to function.                18) Increase commitment to tackling climate change and set more ambitious targets-80% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.                    19) Build legislation that binds fair trade within the industry to ensure stability and fairness in the market.                   20) Buy local: Encourage more people to buy food locally to reduce the carbon footprint and promote local prodution.                          21) Promote sustainability and healthy living courses in schools so that young people are able to make informed choices on what they buy and eat.                        22) Fight world hunger by introducing a financial transaction tax to finance campaigns, such as improving the self-sufficiency of farmers.                23) Be glocal (global and local): help found a campaign to raise the leaders of tomorrow.                 24) Boost core digital skills: Computer science and in particular coding is still rarely taught in schools. Despite the obstacle of teacher education, it is critically important that we take the issue of programming education seriously if we are to provide a new generation of students with important vocational skills. This is not to say that all countries should approach their computer skills similarly. For example, Estonia is short of programmers for its burgeoning tech industry, hence it places an importance on programming. Denmark devotes more time to topics such as the design of user interfaces, which interests its big firms.