Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War

                  For about two decades I have had this activism for better political education, for more democracy and development, for more respect for human rights and better justice,  I have a YouTube channel, here is the link.   https://www.youtube.com/@lucianofietto4773/videos. Since the creation of this channel its visualization counter doesn't work, the same has been happening with the counter of this blog since its creation in 2010. Never a human rights defender was so much harmed in so many ways and for so long time. This persecution to harm me can't carry on, the Brazilians authorities must do someting, I've to have my digital rights respected. This post is a summary of the book with the title above published in April 2026 at https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/text.pdf

 Once again, the global economy is threatened with being thrown off course, this time by the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Over the past year, headwinds from higher trade barriers and elevated uncertaintyhave been offset by tailwinds from technology-related investment, accommodative financial conditions, including a weaker US dollar, and fiscal and monetary policy support. The Middle East conflict presents a significant counterforce to these tailwinds through its impact on commodity markets, inflation expectations and financial conditions. Under an adverse scenario with larger and more persistent increases in energy prices, global growth would slow further to 2.5% in 2026, and inflation would reach 5.4%. Larger fiscal deficits and increasing public debt could put pressure on long-term interest rates and , in turn, on broader financial conditions. In Latin America, growth is projected to remain stable at 2.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027. In Brazil, growth is projected to moderate to 1.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. The war is expected to have a small net positive effect in 2026, as a result of the country being a net energy exporter. In 2027, slowing global demand, higher input costs (including of fertilizers), and tight financial conditions are expected to domnate, reducing growth. Beverages prices plunged by 24.8%, led by 57.4% drop in cocoa prices as favourable weather in West Africa boosted supply and inventories while global demand softened. Coffee prices fell by 9.9% following a record Brazilian harvest and improving supply conditions in Vietnan. In contrast to beverages prices, food prices are expected to increase by 6.0% in 2026. Defense spending is increasing rapidly. Over the past five years, about half of the world's countries have increased their military budgets, and arms sales by the world's largest defense firms have doubled in real terms over two decades. 

Below the GDP growth in 2025, from the highest growth to the smallest growth.  The first column is for countries in the American continent, and the other is for some countries in the rest of the world. As previously forecasted, Guyana had the the second highest GDP growth of the world last year, only the growth in South Sudan was greater. But Guyana had the highest growth in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Congratulations to our neighboring country.

GDP growth 2025 in PanAmerican countries                           Rest of the World

Guyana        19.3%                                                                    Libya    15.9%   

Paraguay       6.0%                                                                     Ireland      12.3%

Nicaragua         4.9%                                                                    Ethiopia       9.2%

Costa Rica        4.6%                                                                      India      7.6%                                  

Argentina           4.4%                                                                   Vietnam       8.0%

Panama            4.4%                                                                      China       5.0%

Guatemala         4.1%                                                                   Philippines      4.4%                                      

Ecuador            3.7%                                                                      Turkiye       3.6%

Honduras           3.7%                                                                     Spain        2.8%

Peru              3.4%                                                                       Australia     2.0%

Colombia           2.6%                                                                    Portugal     1.9%

U.S.A.           2.4%                                                                     Netherlands     1.9%

Chile            2.3%                                                                         Switzerland       1.3%

Brazil            2.3%                                                                               U.K.      1.3% 

Canada           2.1%                                                                         Japan      1.2%

Uruguay           1.8%                                                                          Russia      1.0%

Venezuela         1.5%                                                                       France       0.9%

Mexico           0.6%                                                                           Italy        0.5%

Bolivia            -1.2%                                                                       Germany      0.2%

International Parental Alienation Awareness Day

                         Yesterday 25th of April was a day to remember to all of us to fight parental alienation. Sometimes the way a parent loses the custody of a son, it is already a kind of parental alienation. Besides more lies can be create to separate father and son who were living together since birth. This cowardice can't stay unpunished. A father that has been raising his son since four mmonths old very well, now he is eight years old as everybody knows can't be victim of parental alienation like I am being now. This post is a summary of two articles. The first was published at https://www.facebook.com/ParentalAlienationStudyGroup/posts/april-25th-is-international-parental-alienation-awareness-dayparental-alienating/1445772747583960/. The second was published at https://www.awarenessdays.com/awareness-days-calendar/parental-alienation-awareness-day/

Parental alienating behaviors are not the same as the everyday disagreements, tension, or communication problems that can arise in many family relationship, whether parents remain together or separate. While many families experience period of conflict, alienating behaviors go further than that. They involve repeated actions that draw a child into adult conflict and gradually shape the child's view of a safe parent. The central concern is not the conflict between adults, but the impact on the child. These patterns of conduct that can pressure a child to fear, reject, avoid or disconnect from a safe parent. The harm is psychological, emotional, developmental and relational. Alienating behaviors can include denigration, obstruction of contact, adultification, information control, false or exaggerated narratives, and punishment of the child for showing affection, curiosity, grief or connection. Over time, a child may learn that love for one person creates consequences with another. That is not a free choice. It is pressure placed on a developing child's attachment system, identity, memory and sense of safety. Not every child's rejection of a parent is alienation. Children must always be protected from abuse, neglect, and unsafe relationships. But when rejection is being shaped by manipulation, interference, or loyalty demands, it requires careful assessment,and early intervention. Awareness means recognizing a serious form of family harm in which children may be drawn into rejecting a safe or loved parent, and where healthy, loving relationships can be undermined, fractured, or lost altogether. Children deserve protection from harm. They also deserve the freedom to love safe parents without guilt, fear or punishment.

 This awareness day was created as a part of global awareness campaign about parental alienation. Parental alienation is described "a behavior by a parent, or an adult a child trust, such as a grandma, etc., that could create alienation in the relationaship between a child and a parent." The behavior displaced can be mild and temporary but also extreme and ongoing. Obviously any kind of behaviour that is displayed as a result of parental alienation can be damaging upon a child and could have potentially life long consequences. Parental Alienation Day aims to highlight to care givers the effects that parental alienation could have on children and educate adults in order to identify signs that either they or other are behaving in a manner that could affect the children in their care. Typical types of behaviour displayed by parents or other can include: 1) constantly badmouthing/belittling the other.  2) limiting the other's contact  3) forbidding the child from discussing the parent.  4) creating the impression that other parent doesn't love the child.  5) trying to force the child to reject the parent to make the former partner a former parent as well. With awareness comes education, and with education, comes the power to stop the mental and emotional abuse of children.

Why Impunity Must Never Become a Weapon Against Democracy and Justice

  This post was written by Gemini, including the title.

Across the globe, from the aftermath of dictatorships to the lingering scars of systemic discrimination, human rights violations have left profound wounds on the collective conscience of societies. Yet, an even deeper tragedy occurs when these atrocities go unpunished.

 

Impunity, the failure to hold perpetrators accountable and reparations for victims is not merely an administrative oversight or a flaw in the justice system. It is often a calculated tool of oppression. When human rights violations go unpunished, they create a chilling effect, casting a long shadow of fear designed to paralyze citizens. However, we cannot allow this weaponized impunity to succeed. The lack of accountability must never become a tool to terrify people into abandoning their fight for reparations, democracy, political inclusion and their fundamental rights.

 The Anatomy of Fear and Impunity

To understand why impunity is so dangerous, we must recognize its psychological mechanism. When a state, an institution, or a powerful entity commits violations against its people and faces no legal or social consequences, it sends a crystal-clear message: We can do this again, and no one will stop us. This message is meant to infiltrate the daily lives of opposition groups, activists, and ordinary citizens, breeding a culture of self-censorship and forced submission.

Fear is the ultimate currency of authoritarianism. By leaving decades of violations unexamined and unpunished, those in power hold the threat of repeat violence over the heads of the populace. It is an insidious form of psychological warfare. If speaking out for basic dignity resulted in enforced disappearances, torture, violence or more violations, the logical human response is hesitation. But surrendering to this hesitation is exactly what oppressive systems rely on to maintain the status quo.

The Imperative of Reparations

At the heart of the fight against impunity is the demand for reparations. Reparations are frequently misunderstood as simply financial compensation. In reality, they are a multidimensional demand for truth, memory, and change. They represent a society's formal acknowledgment that a wrong was committed, that victims suffered unjustly, and that the state has a moral obligation to heal the breach in the social contract.

When people are afraid to fight for reparations because past violations were never repaired, the violators win a second time. They not only evade justice, but they also can erase the historical truth. Demanding reparations is an act of remembering. It forces society to look at its own reflections and mandates that the suffering of victims is validated. To abandon this fight out of fear is to allow the architects of violations to dictate the historical narrative. We must view the pursuit of reparations not as a provocation, but as a necessary foundation for national healing.

Democracy Built on Truth, Not Amnesia

Democracy is fundamentally incompatible with institutionalized impunity. A true democratic system relies on the active participation of its citizens, the right to vote and the right to be elected, the rule of law, and guarantee that human rights are protected. When a society agrees to "move on" from human rights violations without addressing them, it builds its democratic house on a foundation of sand.

An unpunished crime against humanity is a dormant virus within the body politic. It signals that some individuals are above the law and that the rights of others are conditional. For people to genuinely participate in a democracy—to protest, to vote freely, to advocate for policy changes—they must feel secure. They cannot operate under the lingering threat that violent tactics might be resurrected without consequence. Without justice, democratic institutions are merely a facade masking a system still influenced by the fear of the powerful.

Transforming Fear into Collective Courage

How, then, do societies break this cycle? The answer lies in collective memory and solidarity. Fear is highly effective when it isolates individuals, making them feel small and vulnerable. But when individuals unite to demand truth, fear loses its grip.

• Grassroots Movements: Local organizations play a vital role in keeping the spotlight on abuses by meticulously documenting atrocities and gathering testimonies.

• International Solidarity: Global human rights coalitions and movements can pressure governments from the outside when internal justice and democratic mechanisms fail.

• Education: Curriculums must reflect the unvarnished truth of past violations, ensuring that new generations understand the cost of their freedoms and the importance of vigilance.

By refusing to let the stories of victims fade into obscurity, these collective efforts strip impunity of its power. The road to justice is long, and the persistence of impunity can be deeply demoralizing. It is entirely human to feel afraid. However, we must reframe this reality. The fact that human rights violations remain unpunished is not a reason to retreat; it is the urgent reason to advance.

We cannot allow the absence of justice to become a weapon that enforces silence. The fight for reparations, for unyielding democracy, and for fundamental human rights is the only way to dismantle the architecture of fear. By refusing to forget and refusing to yield, citizens ensure that the arc of the moral universe, no matter how long, is forced to bend toward justice.

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An Unjustified Restraining Order Used to Separate a Father from his Son Becomes Parental Alienation

                There are two months I don't see my son. I've been raising him since he was four months old and now he is 8 years. I've lost his custody based on lies about my mental health and to make matters worse I can't even visit him and I've never beaten him, as everybody knows. I've been vicitm of so much evil, but now all the world is cemanding justice. Once again I'd like to thank everyone participating in this huge worldwide movement for justice and my pre candidacy and consequent victory. The world understand why is so important to empower a human rights defender victim of many human rights violations, including  I have a YouTube channel, here is the link.   https://www.youtube.com/@lucianofietto4773/videos. Since the creation of this channel its visualization counter doesn't work, the same has been happening with the counter of this blog since its creation in 2010. Never a human rights defender has had so many rights violated for so long time. I've been complain about these violation many time with the Brazilian authorities but so far nothing was done. This post was written by the AI from Google chrome.

              An unjustified restraining order used to separate a father from his son becomes parental alienation when it is part of a deliberate, sustained campaign by one parent to manipulate the child into fearing or rejecting the other parent without legitimate, evidence-based reasons (such as abuse or neglect). The restraining order acts as a "legal weapon" to sever the bond, often following a pattern of false accusations intended to create a "good parent vs. bad parent" narrative. 

Signs a Restraining Order is Parental Alienation:

• Absence of Justification: The order is based on unfounded or manufactured claims of domestic violence, abuse, or safety risks that contradict a previous history of a positive, healthy relationship between the father and son.
• The "Scripted" Child: The son uses adult-like legalistic language, or repeats specific phrases to justify his rejection that sound like they were coached by the mother.
• Sudden Unexplained Fear: The child exhibits sudden fear, hostility, or avoidance of the father, without any firsthand experience to justify it.
• Lack of Ambivalence: The child perceives the father as "all bad" and the mother as "all good," showing no guilt or sadness about the severed relationship.
• Total Blockage of Contact: The mother uses the order to not only stop in-person visits but to block phone calls, emails, and school/medical information.
• Coercive Control: The order is used to force the child to choose sides, where loving the father is framed as a betrayal of the mother. 

Legal and Psychological Context:
Family courts often look for a pattern rather than an isolated incident. If a forensic evaluation finds that a child's resistance is unreasonable and not rooted in personal experience of danger, courts may interpret this as "unexplained reluctance, resistance or refusal" (RRR). 

While some courts are cautious of the term, they increasingly recognize this as a form of emotional abuse, sometimes called "alienating behaviour". When false allegations are proven, it can lead to a reversal of custody or significant changes in visitation orders. 

International Day for the Right to the Truth Concerning Human Rights Violations and for the Dignity of Victims - 2026

                Last Tuesday, 24th of March, in all over the world this was the day to remember the victims of human rights violations and their fight for truth, justice, reparations and dignity. So, this post is a tribute to all victims of serious human rights violations that have been harmed in so many ways and have suffered injustice, humiliation and bullying, to all human rights defenders who is fighting to bring justice and truth for anyone looking for them. We all should participate in this fight because it is very important to fight against injustice. Without justice the violations can spread because the perpetrators feel they can do more and more and then we'd are all surviving in this nightmare called dystopia that would become a evil system difficult to combat. Therefore, help fighting human rights violations and injustice, when many abuses have systematically been done for so long time, the justice is even more important.  Do not think you are unreachable. We all must record any violation of human rights happening now. The systematic violations, the impunity, the daily bullying on TV, the indirectly threats about the creation of lies exist to do the victims give up to fight for justice, democracy and political rights. Besides, the violations, the systematic abuses, the daily humiliation and decades of impunity can have a dehumanizing effect in the population, do not let this happens, the solidarity, empathy and the feeling of justice are the essence of human beings. This post is a summary of two article. The first was published at https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements-and-speeches/2026/03/statement-international-day-right-truth-concerning-gross-human. The second was published at https://fibgar.es/en/international-day-for-the-right-to-truth-a-commitment-to-memory-and-justice/

                    "In a context marked by the dangerous denial and manipulation of information concerning human rights violations, the manufacture of popular support and the erosion of victims' rights, it is essential to reaffirm the inalienable right to know the truth, a pillar of transitional justice processes and a vital guarantee of non-recurrence," said the Special Rapporteur on the promotion of truth, justice, reparation and guarantees of non-recurrence. "Exacerbated by new technologies, instances of glorification, revisionism and negationism of human rights violations are on the rise in all parts of the world, with detrimental impacts on rigorous truth-telling, and therefore on democracy and peace," the experts warned. "The comprehensive truth about human rights violations, including accurate accounts about the circumstances and responsibilities involved and the harm endured is an imprescriptible right of victims and an indispensable tool for societies to heal and prevent future violations," they stressed. Commemorating the International Day for the Right to the Truth Concerning Human Rights Violations and for Dignity of Victims, the experts expressed their support for the dignity and courage of survivors and families of victims who are pursuing their quest for truth and justice. "In recent months, some political leaders, using AI-driven personalisation processes, have distorted facts, manipulated opinion, incited hatred and retraumatized victims. These phenomena not only undermine the prospects for peace and democracy, but pose new risks to societies". The experts recalled that under international law, States are under an obligation to investigate, disclose relevant information to victims and families. Truth-telling about such violations should be grounded on accurate accounts, especially those stemming from official transitional justice process, and must be aimed at preserving the collective memory from extinction and at guarding against negationist arguments. Noting the vital role played by international accountability and truth-seeking mechanisms working to uncover the truth, they expressed alarm at the recent acts of intimidation and sanctions directed against their members.                                                                                                                                                               The fundamental objective of this day is to reflect on its importance and its relationship to justice, memory, and especially to pay tribute to those who have given their lives for it. Likewise, this commemoration serves as a day of sensitisation and awareness-raising to emphasise the need for a strong commitment to the search for truth and reparation for victims and their families. The internationalisation of the Right to Truth, recognised by the U.N., establishes a global commitment to member states that transcends national borders, promoting justice and accountability to citizens. The Right to Truth is indispensable in contemporary democracies, especially in those that have faced serious human rights violations. This right is intimately linked to the memory of the victims and is crucial in the fight against impunity. The protection and respect for fundamental rights is essential and it is the collective duty of all to protect them and to demand that the state provide the truth about the crimes that affect society. The state must protect, safeguard and promote the human rights of its citizens, especially ensuring this right to the victims. Knowing the truth will undoubtedly make possible to build present democracies that are more committed to human rights.