GDP Growth 2017

            This post is a summary of the book with the title of, "World Economic Outlook - April 2018 - Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change." Published in April of 2018  at  http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/03/20/world-economic-outlook-april-2018

            The global economic upswing that began around mid-2016 has become broader and stronger. For most countries, current favorable growth rates will not last. Policymakers should seize this opportunity to bolster growth, make it more durable, and equip their governments better to counter the next downturn. Global growth seems on track to reach 3.9% this year. Helping to drive this output acceleration is faster growth in the Euro area, Japan, China, and the U.S., all of which grew above expectations last year, along with some recovery in commodity exporters. Along with China, several other developing economies will also do better this year than in our past projections, that group includes Brazil, Mexico, and emerging Europe. Growth this broad based and strong has not been seen since the 2010 bounce back. The expansion will help to dispel some remaining legacies of the crisis. Other aftereffects of the crisis seem more durable, however, including higher debt levels and widespread public skepticism about policymakers' capacity and willingness to generate robust and inclusive growth. That skepticism will only be reinforced, with negative political consequences, if economic policy does not rise to the challenge of enacting reforms and building fiscal buffers. Success in such efforts would strengthen medium-term growth, spread its benefits lower in the income distribution, and build resilience to the hazards that lie ahead. Monetary policy might tighten sooner than expected if excess demand emerges, a notable possibility in the U.S., where fiscal policy has turned much more expansive even as the economy has neared full employment. Financial tightening will stress highly indebted countries, firms, and households, including in emerging economies. Population growth, age distribution, and other structural employment trends are critical for understanding growth, investment, and productivity. Chapter 2 focuses on labor force in advanced economies. Chapter 3 focuses on the declining share of manufacturing employment globally and, most dramatically in advanced economies. This structural transformation, driven by technology advances as well as globalization. Chapter 4 studies the process through which innovative activity and technological know-how spread across national borders. Cross-border knowledge flows from technological leaders to poorer countries have historically been drivers of income convergence. Now, the emergence of China and Korea as leaders in some sectors offers the promise of positive repercussions for others. International trade and competition, this chapter suggests, promote global knowledge diffusion and thus provide an important channel through which all countries can benefit. Global growth is on an upswing, but favorable conditions will not last forever, and now is the moment to get ready for leaner times. Readiness requires not only cautious and forward-looking management of monetary and fiscal policy, but also careful attention to financial stability. Also necessary are structural and tax policies that raise potential output, including by investing in people and ensuring that the fruits of growth are widely shared. In many developing economies, recent currency stability have helped keep a lid on core inflation. Inflation is around historical lows in Brazil and Russia, where demand has been recovering from the deep contractions of 2015-16, while it has picked up in India. In brazil, legislating social security reform remains a priority to ensure that spending is consistent with the constitutional fiscal rule and to guarantee long-term fiscal sustainability. Making use of the recent strengthening of activity to improve the primary balance over the short term would complement the overall consolidation strategy. Following a deep recession in 2015-16, Brazil's economy returned to growth in 2017 ( 1% ) and is expected to improve to 2.3% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019 on the track of stronger private consumption and investment. Inflation in Brazil is expected to remain subdued in the range 3-4% in 2018 as output gaps gradually close, with growth continuing to recover from recession. Inflation is expected to rise over the medium term, with firmer core inflation and the projected modest pickup in commodity prices, but to remain at levels well below the average of the past decade. While the negative side effects of globalization have received much attention in public debates, the chapter highlights that there are upsides too: globalization helps the diffusion of knowledge and technology. From a policy perspective, greater global interconnectedness is thus key to maximizing inward technology diffusion and boosting economies' growth potential. But assimilating and productively using foreign knowledge often requires investments in R&D and in human capital. Below the GDP growth in 2017 from the greatest growth to the lowest of each list. The first list is for countries in the Americas and the other is for the rest of the world.

GDP 2017 in PanAmerican countries                                 Rest of the World

Panama   5.4%                                                                  Ethiopia   10.9%          

Nicaragua   4.9%                                                               Ireland    7.8%

Honduras   4.8%                                                               Senegal   7.2%

Paraguay   4.3%                                                                Romania   7.0%

Bolivia   4.2%                                                                   China   6.9%

Costa Rica   3.2%                                                              India   6.7%

Uruguay   3.1%                                                                 Tanzania   6.0%

Canada   3.0%                                                                   Pakistan   5.3%

Argentina   2.9%                                                               Indonesia   5.1%

Ecuador   2.7%                                                                 Poland   4.6%

Peru   2.5%                                                                       Spain   3.1%

U.S.A.   2.3%                                                                   South Korea   3.1%

Mexico   2.0%                                                                  Portugal   2.7% 

Colombia   1.8%                                                              Germany   2.5%

Chile   1.5%                                                                     Australia   2.3%

Brazil   1.0%                                                                    France   1.8%

Trinidad Tob.   -2.6%                                                       U.K.   1.8%   

Venezuela   -14.0%                                                          Italy   1.5%

                                                                                         Russia   1.5%

180th Birthday of Henry Adams

                 A little more than two months ago, the American writer Henry Adams would complete his 180th birthday. So, this post is a tribute to him. As a journalist he fought to expose corruption. And as a writer he brought corruption and many moral dilemmas to literature. This post is a summary of three articles. The first was published at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Adams. The second was published at  http://www.claremont.org/crb/article/the-education-of-henry-adams/. The third was published at  https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/on-the-horizon-henry-adams-skeptic-faith-in-democracy/

                Henry Brooks Adams (1838-1918) was an American historian, writer and member of the Adams political family, being descended from two U.S. Presidents. As a young Harvard graduate, he was secretary to his father, Charles Francis Adams, Ambassador in London, a posting that had much influence on him, both through experience of wartime diplomacy and absorption in English culture, especially the works of John Stuart Mill. After the American Civil War, he became a noted political journalist who entertained America's foremost intellectuals in Washington and Boston. He was best known for his "History of the United States During the Administrations of Thomas Jefferson and James Madison," a 9-volume work, praised for its literary style. His posthumously published memoirs, "The Education of Henry Adams,"  won the Pulitzer Prize and went on to be named by the renowed publisher of classics Moder LIbrary, as the top English-language nonfiction book of the 20th century. His grandfather, John Quincy Adams, and great-grandfather, John Adams, had been U.S. Presidents. In 1868, Henry Adams returned to the U.S. and settled in Washington, DC, where he began working as a journalist. Adams saw himself as a traditionalist longing for the democratic ideal of the 18th century. Accordingly, he was keen on exposing political corruption in his jounalism. In 1870, Adams was appointed professor of medieval history at Harvard, a position he held until his retirement. In 1872, Clover Hooper and he were married in Berverly, Massachusetts, and spent their honeymoon in Europe.

                The opening passages of "The Education of Henry Adams," presage the subject that would preoccupy Adams for the rest of his life: the intellectual as spectator as well as inquirer; the inadequacy of education and the passing of the Republic; the sense of life as chance, coincidence, and as indeterminate and unpredictable as the shuffle of the deck; politics as the scheme of those who would control the deck; the omnipresence of power acting upon people without their consent, history as the movement of events without rational causes or moral purposes. The title is as ironic and playful as it is bitter. Many chapters of "The Education of H.A."  deal with politics. The author transports us to the nation's capital in the pre-Civil War era, when Democrats and Whigs vied with each other over the pleasures of office, employing the rhetoric of classical republicanism not to restrain private interest for the sake of public virtue but simply to accuse the opposing party of corruption. Here anyone finds few traces of politics as the uplifting exercise in "civic humanism" and "participatory democracy" touted by many of today's scholars. In fact, Adams found democratic politics to be little more than "the systematic organization of hatreds." For Adams, power was not alien to freedom, for humankind both absorbed power and exercised it. "Man's function as a force of nature was to assimilate other forces as he assimilated food. He called it the love of power." Adams studied power because his ancestors had believed that they could tame it with the "machinery of government." Constitutions, however, deal only with power as a political phenomenon involving the legislature, the executive, and the judiciary. A century later young Adams had to confront new forms of big business, and new forms of energy and armaments based on developments in science and technology. Long before Michel Foucault critized Marxist for assuming that power expresses the rule of wealth, Adams lectured his brother Brooks: "You may abolish money and all its machinery, the power will still be there." The book is troubling to many readers, despite, or perhaps because of it brilliance. Writers on the left dismiss Adams as a male elitist, and they can hardly acknowledge that the American historian who died 90 years ago had sharper insights about power than do today's Marxists. Scholars on the right may find Adams too alienated from the timeless truths that thhey feel America needs on our culture of relativism. He was, after all, trying to explain why his great-grandfather, failed as the second president. The answer was that Jefferson won the election of 1800 by attacking Adams for enlarging the power of the national government and, once in office, proceeded to do the same thing, which meant that America would not be a simple, small, virtuous republic-Jefferson's dream-but an expansive commercial empire- Hamilton's vision and Jefferson's nightmare. My favorite sections in the book concern Adams's reflections on teaching, which he took so seriously that he lamented deeply his incapacity to impart any generalizations worthy of being called lessons, much less laws. "A teacher affects eternity. He can never tell where his influence stops." 

               The novel "Democracy,"  published in 1880, was a description of a ruling class with the Adamses left out. It appeared anonymously, created something of a sensation after its publication in England.  The heroine of Democracy is an intelligent, sensitive, earnest, and sharp-witted woman who performs the same role in the novel as Adams does in the other book Education. A young, attractive, and wealthy widow, who can be moved by neither the passion of love nor the greed of money. Mrs. Madeleine Lee decides that in Washington politics she might find the meaning of contemporary life. "She wanted to see with her own eyes the action of primary forces; to touch with her own hand the massive machinery of society; to measure with her own mind the capacity of the motive power. She was bent upon getting to the heart of the great American mystery of democracy and government." She not only gts to the heart of the mystery, but she very nearly captures by it, in the person of Mr. Ratcliffe, Senator from Illinois, known to his best friends and worst enemies.The story is reminiscent of the innocent maiden rescued by the fair-haired hero from the clutches of the dastarrdly villain. Except for the faintest skeletal resemblance of plot, however, there is nothing else in the novel to suggest the melodrama. In the flesh, indeed, it is more closely akin to some of the novels of Adam's good friend Henry James, as the perpicacious Mrs. Ward suggested. It also has the Jamesian instinct for irony and ambiguity, applied, however, not so much to personal relations as to the play of mind. Above all, it has that typical characteristic of James's novel: a complicated, even tortuous moral dilemma which must somehow be resolved in terms of the clear and certain principles of morality.That Ratcliffe's political behavior, like corruption in general, is immoral there is no doubt, but of the methods, motives, and even the principles of the reformers there is cinsiderable doubt. The audacity of the man astonishes Mrs. Lee. "Was it politics, that had caused this atrophy of the moral senses by disuse?" She wonders.  The requirements of the novel form may give a deceptively optimistic color to the end of the novel. Ratcliffe is exposed as evil, and Mrs. Lee's virtur, both personal and political, is preserved. In fact, however, it is the evidence of Adam's ironic sensibility that Ratcliffe's argument is unanswered.

International Day for the Right to the Truth Concerning Human Rights Violations and for the Dignity of Victims - Part II

             This post is a summary of four articles. The first was published at  http://un.org.au/2014/03/24/international-day-for-the-right-to-the-truth-concerning-gross-human-rights-violations-and-for-the-dignit. The second was published at  https://www.google.com.br/search?q=deaths+of+human+rights+defenders+in+brazil+in+2017&oq=deaths+of+human+rights+defenders+in+brazil+in+2017&aqs=chrome..69i57.18067j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-  The third was published at  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/16/the-guardian-view-on-the-of-brazilian-politicians-marielle-francos-legacy. The fourth was published at  https://theglobalamericans.org/2016/07/4325/.

            24th of March is the International Day foe the Right to the Truth Concerning Gross Human Rights Violations and for the Dignity of Victims. On this day in 1980, human rights defender Monsignor Oscar Romero, from El Salvador, was assassinated. In a study conducted in 2006, the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights concluded that the right to the truth about human rights violations is an inalienable and autonomous right, linked to the duty and obligation of the state to protect and guarantee human rights, to conduct effective investigations and to guarantee effective remedy and reparations. The study affirms that the right to the truth implies knowing the full and complete truth as to the events that transpired, their specific circunstances, and who participated in them, including knowing the circunstances in which the violations took place, as well as the reasons for them. In a 2009 report on the right to the truth, the Office of the U.N. high commissioner identified best practices for the effective implementation of this right, in particular practices relating to archives and records concerning violations of human rights, and programmes on the protection of witnesses and other persons involved in trials connected with such violations.

            At least 312 human rights activists were killed in 27 countries during 2017, according to the Front Line Defenders' annual report. "More than two-thirds of these, 67% of activists killed, were defending land, environmental and indigenous peoples' rights, nearly always in the context of mega projects, extractive industry and big business," FLD said in their Human Rights Defenders At Risk report. FLD said that many of them were predictable. Only 12% of reported deaths resulted in an arrest and 84% of victims received at least one targeted death threat. "Around the world, defenders continue to tell us that government officials refuse to respond to requests for protection following death threats to activists," said FLD Executive Director Andrew Anderson. "Killings almost always occur following a series or pattern of threat, indicating that if preventive action were taken by police, and threats against defenders were taken seriously by authorities, HRD killings could be drastically reduced." Although killings occurred in 27 countries, 80% of them occurred in just four countries: Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and the Philippines. While human rights activists are being killed by mostly unknown assailants, they also face threats from governments of the countries they work in with criminalization of their work being used more often as a tool, sometimes even with the threat of death. "In 2017, thousands of activists were detained on fabricated charges, subjected to lengthy, expensive and unfair legal processes or sentenced to long prison terms," the report states. "In a number of countries, authorities accused human rights defenders of  'waging war against the state' and 'secession' charges, which carry the death penalty."

            Political cynicism is rife in Brazil. Years of scandal have left many regarding elected representatives en masse as corrupt and liars, and democracy as broken. Murder is frequent in Rio. Yet, tens of thousands have taken to the streets across the country to protest against the killing of Rio  de Janeiro politician Marielle Franco and her driver. Franco, was shot dead only 18 months after her election to the city council. Sceptics wondered if she could get elected, yet her tally of votes was the fifth highest of more than 50 councillors. The outrage of her murder should only illuminate the power of her message. In some ways her story symbolise the evolution of social movements in Brazil and the way that a longstanding working-class protest has begun to form connections with middle-class activism. Some supporters hope that her death will prove a turning point in Brazil, saying the strength of the protest suggest it has broken a widespread political apathy. Set against this are the grave fears of Brazil tilting still further away from justice, fairness and security. In this context, international condemnation of this murder matters. It offers moral support to protesters and reminds mainstream politicians and authorities that Brazil will be judged on whether it brings Franco's killers to justice or not and listen to her warnings. Authoritarianism only will further brutalise  communities.

               2015 was the deadliest year for environment and land activists all over the world. According to a report by Global Witness, "On Dangerous Ground," there were 185 killings of activists across 16 countries, which represents a 59% increase from 2014. While this represent a global trend, Latin America has the worst record. Out of the ten deadliest countries, seven are from Western Hemisphere. And while these numbers are alarming, it is also likely that these statistics do not include many killings that take place in remote or indigenous areas. What makes the numbers, even if underreported, even more appaling is that in other measurements of democracy and human rights and environmental protection, Latin America leads much of the developing world. In 2015, the five bloodiest countries were Brazil (50 deaths), the Philippines (33), Colombia (26), Peru (12) and Nicaragua (12). One reason for the disconnect between high scores civil right/ environmental policy and the high death toll of environmental activists may be that in the context of greater openness, the cases of murdered environmentalists are more likely to be reported. Killings in others countries may not be reported in the press. The second explanation is related to the fact that almost half of those killed in Latin America were indigenous. Indigenous people have been, and continue to be, subject to exclusion. They are worse off than non-indigenous populations in terms of income, education level, nutrition and health indicators.  A recent report by the World Bank affirms that 19% of the indigenous territories in Latin America are subject to legal or illegal mining, and the majority of that 19% are formally indigenous lands.

International Day for the Right to the Truth Concerning Human Rights Violations and for the Dignity of Victims

                     A little more than two weeks ago, precisely on 24th of March. All over the world was celebrated the day we all must search justice. This post is a summary of three articles. The first was published at http://www.gicj.org/positions-opinons/gicj-positions-and-opinions/1376-international-day-for-the-right-to-the-truth-concerning-gross-human-rights-violations-and-for-the-dignity-of-victims-24-march. The second was published at http://eamonnmallie.com/2018/03/right-truth-march-24th-2018-john-finucane/. The third was published at https://citizentruth.org/marielle-franco-murder/

                     The right to truth emerges in the context of gross violations of human rights and grave breaches of humanitarian law. Those related to victims of executions, enforced disappearance, abductions, and torture seek clarification about their loved ones's situation. Gaining knowledge of the full and complete truth as to the occurrences, their specific circumstances, and the perpetrators, and underlying reasons lies at the heart of the right to the truth. In cases relating to enforced disappearance and missing persons, the right furthermore entails the right to knowledge about the victims' fate. Moreover, the right to truth has been described as both an individual and collective right and it has been stipulated that the state has a duty to remember. The right to truth has evolved significantly over time to guarantee developemnt towards redress, reconciliation, and peace in affected regions. Through the evolution of the right to truth, international criminal and human rights jurisdiction coalesce in some areas as both seek to combat impunity. 24th March of every year marks the International Day for the Right to the Truth Concerning Gross Human Rights Violations and for the Dignity of Victims, as decided by the United Nations General Assembly on 21 December 2010. The purpose of the day is to honor the memory of victims of gross and/or systematic human rights violations and promote the right to truth and justice; to pay tribute to those who have devoted their lives to and sacrificed their lives in the struggle to promote and protect human rights for all. The right to truth concerning gross human rights violations law has been deciphered in a 2006 study by the Office of he UNHCHR as inalienable and autonomous right, in line with the duty and obligation of the state to protect and ensure human rights, to conduct effective investigations, and to provide for effective remedy and reparations.In its contribution, Geneva International Centre for Justice (GICJ) highlight core international mechanisms and instruments pertaining to the right to the truth, underlines the importance of forensic genetics in this regard, outlines past instances of the right to truth, and discusses where its promotion is urgently needed. In this context, GICJ reiterates the preventive potential of transitional justice. The international community is failing to protect uncountable civilians from persecution, untold suffering and death in Syria, Libya, Yemen, Iraq, Sudan, and Palestine to name a few. Despite numerous warning signs, the actions of the UN have hitherto failed to prevent atrocity crimes. Transitional justice, would be key to breaking the cycles of impunity and to ensure non-recurrence. The international community has the responsibility to act to prevent crimes wherever they occur if the state in question is unable or unwilling to fulfill its international obligations. The pledge of "never again" must be a principle that overrides the geopolitical and other interests of some states. GICJ urges the international community to take all necessary measures to implement comprehensive transitional justice policies, including by guaranteeing the right to truth, in contexts in which crimes have been or are currently being committed, to help break cycles of impunity. 

                  The U.N. has proclaimed today to be The International Day for the Right to Truth concerning gross Human Rights Violation and for the Dignity of Victims. The date is significant, and pays homage to a fearless and outspoken advocate for human rights, Archbishop Oscar Romero of El Salvador who was assassinated in 1980.  In Ireland,  we are perhaps more acutely aware than others as to the significance and importance in having the right to truth. I have spent 29 years campaigning for the truth of the human rights solicitor Patrick Finucane. This case has perhaps become emblematic for the broader issue of accountability. We are talking about three things, Firstly, the truth must be revealed in its entirely, no matter how difficult it is. Secondly, it must be offcially acknowledge, so there is official recognition that the state bears a responsibility. Third, the lessons must be learned to prevent things like this from happening again in the future. There are so many people, who like us, want to find out the truth behind Pat's murder. It is unfinished business for them and unfinished business for us.

                  On the night of March 14th, Brazilian politician and activist Marielle Franco was returning from an event when she was brutally gunned down in what appears to be a targeted assassination; the apparent assassination is most likely a form of retaliation against Marielle Franco's courageous and unfaltering opposition to unfair police tactics against the people of Brazil. Her driver, Anderson Pedro Gomes, was also killed in the attack. Franco had been exposing Brazilian police force brutality the very night she was assassinated by suggestion that the recent killing of 23-year-old Matheus Melo was orchestrated by police. In a tragic turn of events, it seems that Franco met the same fate as Melo at the hands of a corrupt system determined to silence opposition views. According to activist and political theorist Priscila Carvalho, who was interviewed for this article, "Franco's murder illustrates the present threat to oppressed groups, not just in the favelas, but in the country as a whole. Violence stems from acts and omissions in the justice system," says Carvalho. Police brutality has been an issue in Brazil for decades, but in recent years, the number of deaths at the hands of police has been rising at a disturbing rate. As the situations in large cities, such as Rio have gotten far more difficult for the government to control, politicians have responding by increasing police presence , and even deploying the military as security forces in Rio. Unfortunately, almost immediately after Franco was murdered, her opponents began tempting to assassinate her character as well. Brazil has one of the highest rates of social media use of any country in the world, and right-wing politicians and organizations have been exploiting this medium in order to spread negative accusations against Franco, the majority of which seem to be completely untrue.