Friday, October 14, 2011

A Jump to the Democracy.

     This interview with Julian Assange, creator in 2006 of Wikileaks. It was made by Paulo Lima and was published at Trip magazine at 16/05/2011. This is a summary. The title is above.

    Paulo:  What is the real historical effect of Wikileaks?
    Julian:   We advocate a simple concept, but abstract. The truth is the only ingredient really useful in the time to take decisions, so, to bring as much of real information as we can to the surface is the right way to decide things.
     Paulo:  And inside this philosophy, if all goes according  you imagine, what comes next?
    Julian:  We want a fairer world, justice is a very strong feeling in the human beings. How the power should be administered and delegated.
      Paulo:  You are optimistic when you think in the future?
    Julian:  I think the politicization of the youth connected to internet, the most significant thing that happened in the world since the 1960s, this is something new, a real revolution.
      Paulo:  If the leaks and the transparency to continue indefinitely, you think that the world runs the risk of becoming a kind of big brother?
      Julian:  Transparency is for governments and for big organizations. Privacy is for individuals. The work of my life have been to protect the citizens against abuses.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Latin America and Caribbean growth will be 4,7% in 2011.

        This is a summary. The title is above. It was published in ECLAC webpage.

       According to a report published in 13 July 2011 by ECLAC, L.A. will grow by 4,7% thanks to the boost of internal demand. IN the economic survey of  L.A. presented by executive secretary of the U.N. Alicia Barcena, the current situation calls for close attention. Ms. Barcena wonders¨ How prepared is L.A. for managing economic growth? We must recocer the fiscal space in order to be able to take measures to ensure sustained growth with productive employment and equality.
      In 2011, the growth is mainly being driven by consumption which is attributable to improved labour indicators and increased credit.
      In terms of countries, the fastest growing this year will be:  1º)  Panama 8.5%   2º)  Argentina 8.3%   3º)  Peru 7.1%   4º)  Uruguay 6.8%   5º)  Ecuador 6.4%   6º)  Chile 6.3%   7º)  Paraguay 5.7%                                                                                    

Latin America was the region with the strongest growth in FDI in 2010.

     This report was published in the ECLAC webpage in 4 may 2011, and the complete title including also Caribbean, but like the own report said the growth was only in L.A. This is a summary.


    

      In 2010, L.A. was the region with the strongest increases as a recipient of FDI ( Foreign Direct Investment), according to a report presented by ECLAC. Last year, the region`s FDI inflows were 40% higher than in 2009.

      In a context of falling foreign investment in developed countries ( -7% ) and rising investment in developing countries ( +10% ), L.A. increased its share of the recipient market from 5%  to 10%  between 2007 and 2010.
      For 2011, FDI flows to L.A. are expected to maintain this trend and increase by 15% to 25%   which could take them to unprecedent high levels, according to the projections of the report luanched by ECLAC.

       Nevertheless, the ECLAC officials did emphasize that ¨ in order to improve the capacity to absorb the benefits of such investment, L.A. need to implement productive development policies focused on innovation and local capacities to promote the creation of quality employment¨.
       According to the report FDI in L.A. in 2010, the region`s main recipient were:  1º) Brazil  48,462 billion.
2º) Mexico  17,726 b.    3º) Chile  15,095 b.    4º) Peru  7,328 b.    5º) Colombia  6,760 b.
       U.S.A. remains the main investor and was responsible for 17% of  total FDI , second Netherlands 13%, China  9% , fourth: Canada and Spain with 4%.
       The main recipient sector in South America were the natural resources with 43% and services 30%.

Monday, October 10, 2011

Vol. Teacher XIV - IMF figures for 2010

   Carrying with economic news about Latin America, here there are some data from the last year. The data are from IMF. The Latin America champion of growth was: 1ª) Paraguay - 15.3% ,    2ª) Argentina - 9.2%      3ª) Peru - 8.8%  ,       4ª) Uruguay - 8.5%  ,         5ª) Brazil - 7.5%  ,         6ª) Panama - 7.5% ,              7ª) Chile - 5.3%.
      By the way, Paraguay was second highest GDP growth in the world, only losing  to   Quatar  - 16.3%    and   3ª place was Singapore  14.5%,          4ª) Taiwan - 10.8% ,       5ª) India - 10.4% ,                          6ª) China - 10.3%.   These were the world champions.

    In Europe, some of the good growth were: Sweden - 5.5% ,     Russia - 4.0% ,        Germany - 3.5%  ,  others importants countries had a low growth, like:  USA - 2.8% ,     Italy - 1.3% ,      U.K. - 1.3%    and Japan - 3.9%.

    The IMF figures of consumer prices to last year were the following from the lowest to highest.
         1ª) Peru - 1.5% ,        2ª) Chile - 1.5% ,        3ª) Colombia - 2.3% ,        4ª) Bolivia - 2.5% ,           5ª) Ecuador - 3.6%       6ª) Paraguay - 4.7% ,       7ª) Brazil - 5.0% ,        8ª) Uruguay - 6.7% ,              9ª) Argentina - 10.5% , Venezuela - 28.2%

     The IMF figures of unemployment in 2010, were:
Lowest unemployment in Europe:    1ª) Norway - 3.6% ,        2ª) Switzerland - 3.6% ,       3ª) Austria - 4.4% ,     5ª) Netherlands - 4.5%.
                  Highest unemployment in Europe were:        1ª) Spain - 20.1% ,            2ª) Serbia - 19.4% ,           3ª) Latvia - 19.0%.
                 In Latin America, the unemployment figures in 2010, were:
Lowest:   Mexico - 5.4%,        Paraguay - 6.1%,        Brazil - 6.7%,           Uruguay - 7.0%
Highest:  Colombia - 11.8%,        Venezuela - 8.6%,         Chile 8.3%.

     These unemployment figures in Latin America is not very accurate in order to compare in global scale, because in L.A. the most of the countries use a metodoly of research different from developed countries.
     An increase of GDP of a country greater than population growth is generally taken as an increase in the standard of living of its population. A growth rate of  2.5% per year will lead to a doubling of GDP within 29 years, whilst a growth rate of  8% per year ( experienced by some Asin tigers) will lead to a doubling of GDP within 10 years. Growth is an avenue through which better living standards and lower rates of poverty can be achieved, growth stimulates higher employment.                                From wikipedia

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Vol. Teac. XIII - Latin America GDP Growth 2010

      Lately, we are reading a lot of good economic news about Latin America, specially about South America. It seems that finally, after to struggle too many years to guarantee the economic stabilization, S.A. has found a faster pace in direction to a higher GDP growth, more development with all benefits that this brings to the population, mainly in the labor market, consequently in the rising of wages.
      According to a recent ECLAC report published in December, 2010. L.A. and the caribbean will grow 6% in 2010, being South America 6.6%, Mexico and Central America 4.9% and the Caribbean 0.5%.
      The L.A. champion in GDP gowth of 2010, is  the: 1º Paraguay 9.7%,  2º Uruguay 9.0%,  3º Peru 8.6%,  4º Argentina 8.4%,  5º  Brazil 7.7º,  6º Mexico 5.3%,  7º Chile 5.2%.
       On the other hand, the highest falls were Haiti -7%, due to earthquake and Venezuela -1.6%.
       High levels of world liquidity would push down exchange rates while pushing up commodity prices, which could harm the external accounts and lead to excessive specialization in the production and export of commodities.
       According to another report from ECLAC, L.A. growth rate could outstrip the global average this decade(2010-2019). It seems that L.A. has learned from its lost decade of the eighties and from its debt crisis. Panama has got its investment grade in 2010, the others who have already are: Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru. The probably next are: Uruguay and Colombia. Colombia is emerging as South America 3º largest oil producer after Brazil and Venezuela.
       However to bolster the improvements in the labour market and generate more productive employment, the countries need to identify and remove bottleneck, mainly in the education and to strengthen their macroeconomic policies and their jurisdictional security.
    Unemployment in L. A. falls as a result of the economic recovery, equally important is the creation of ¨green jobs¨, particularly in Brazil, Where many houses have been equiped with solar paneled and many persons are working in the recycling industry.

Monday, March 21, 2011

Sustaining Latin America`s Transformation.

    This report was published at Finance and Development magazine in March,2011 and was written by Nicolás Eyzaguirre, IMF`s Western Hemisphere Department`s Director. This is a summary and the title is above.

    With the global crisis behind it, L.A. endowed with a wealth of commodities and now facing favorable external conditions, has great economic opportunities and the potential to become an increasingly important global player. Three countries in the region: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, are members of the G20.
    Better policies played a critical role in the region`s recent relative success, supported by much broader social consensus about the importance of macroeconomic stability.
    Now more people are experiencing a higher standard of living, compared with previous periods of economic expansion. Income distribution, a long-standing weakness in the region, improved in 15 out 18 countries in the region. Increased government transfer to the poor, as well as a narrowing of the wage gap between skilled and low-sklled workers, help explain these improvements. The region`s success in bringing down inflation, which hurts poor people most, has also played a key role.
    The region has the potential to become more prominent on the global stage and raise its share of world output, which has been stable at about 8 to 9% in recent decades. The region`s output grew by about 6% in 2010(second only to Asia) and is projected at about 4 to 5% in the coming years, well above its 30-year average of less than 3%.
    Achieving or even bettering this outcome will require skillful macroeconomic management as well as structural reforms to strengthen the resilience to shocks and boost growth.
   L.A. also needs to be careful about complacency when things are going well. Currently, global conditions have combined to create two very strong tailwinds that are helping L.A., easy external financing and strong commodities prices.
   Boosting productivity and competitiveness remains the key policy challenge over the medium and longer term, although the reasons for low productivity are complex. there is a need for progress on several fronts.
   PUBLIC INVESTMENT - Which is low relative to the more dynamic emerging economies, must be boosted from current levels to address the infrastructure gap. The development of human capital, through better schooling and training, is also essential.
   BUSINESS CLIMATE and OVERALL GOVERNANCE - Improvements in these areas are also essential to harness private investment. This will require diverse efforts, ranging from trimming red tape to improving business security.
   EXTERNAL TRADE - Trade with the faster-growing economies can be deepened and exports can be diversified more generally to reduce over time reliance on advanced economies and commodity exports.
   Countries will also need to accomodate the demands of a growing middle class and increased global competition by upgrading the quality of services in the area of education, health and public security.
   These challenges must be met without compromising the sustainability of government finance, this will require boosting government revenue in some cases and being more careful about spending priorities in others.
   Policymakers will need to carefully manage the generally stimulative global conditions to avoid a recurrence of the boom-bust cycles of the past, while making new efforts to cement conditions for stronger and more equitable growth.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Vol. Teac. XII - Intentional Homicide Rate

  I would like to do a correction, I said that Brazil is among the top ten countries with the highest intentional homicide rate, but I was wrong, actually our country is among the top fifteen. Below is the list with the deadliest countries of the world, the data is from: UNODC, 2004.

              INTENTIONAL HOMICIDE RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION.

 1º South Africa  69.0                         9º Angola  36.0
  2º Colombia  61.1                          10º Burundi  35.4
 3º El Salvador  57.0                        11º Congo  35.2
  4º Jamaica  55.2                              12º Haiti  33.0
 5º Ivory Coast  45.7                        13º Honduras  32.2
  6º Lesotho  37.3                              14º Zimbabwe 32.0
 7º Venezuela  37.0                           15º Brazil  30.8
  8º Guatemala  36.4

   In Europe, the highest intentional homicide rate is from Russia 29.7, after comes Ukraine 12.0

   In this another list, the data is from: laspblog.blogspot.com,2008, is the highest homicide rate among the Brazilian state capitals, and the second list, the safest, in the source, there were not numbers for the safest.

      INTENTIONAL HOMICIDE RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION
              Highest                                     Lowest
       1º Maceio  101.6                         1º Palmas
       2º Recife  61.2                             2º Boa Vista
       3º Vitória  58.9                             3º Florianópolis
       4º Salvador  57.1                         4º Rio Branco
       5º Bélem  50.3                              5º Macapa