This post is a summary of two reports published at http://www.imf.org/,One on May 2013, with the title of "Regional Economic Reports." Another on April 2013, with the title of "World Economic Outlook." Also in this post, two others summaries. "Brazil hits the wall," published at http://www.forbes.com, on December,27,2012. And "Brazil`s GDP: slower and ever slower," published at http://www.ft.com/, on December,31,2012.
Growth in Latin America is set to pick up to about 3.5% in 2013, broadly in line with potential. The region continues to benefit from favorable external financing conditions and relatively high commodity prices, but these tailwinds are unlikely to last forever. The key challenges for policymakers today are preserving macroeconomic stability, and building strong foundations for sustained growth in the future. More prudent fiscal policy would help ease pressure on capacity constraints, mitigate the widening of current account deficits, and prepare to deal with adverse external shocks. Exchange rate flexibility and prudential measures should continue to be used to discourage speculative capital flows. Sustaining strong output growth will require structural reforms to raise productivity growth.
Brazil has had a tough two years, this last one in particular has been rough. A crime wave swept in São Paulo. Then there is this: the economy is underperforming everyone`s standard. Brazil, a country that wants to be the country of the future, with all the amenities and a stable economy, has seen its confidence dwindle. Inflation is on the rise again. The economy has gone from 5% growth to under 1% growth in the two years period. Interest rates are lower than they have ever been, but have done very little good, companies are not investing. Per capita income has dropped to its lowest level in years, roughly $ 11,670, a 9% drop. Brazilians are growing deeper in debt. Personal debt now accounts for 44.5% of median family income. It is also the tenth straight monthly increase, and the highest level of all time. The good news is that, the brazilian labor market remains strong.
Economist surveyed by brazil`s central bank have revised their forecasts for 2013. Economic growth in 2012 was less than 1%, they reckon. That is less than a quarter of what Guido Mantega, finance minister hoped for when the year started. The survey also has seen consumer price inflation creeping up, to 5.7% in 2012, from 5.4% four weeks ago. Nor is there much cheer for 2013. Predictions are unchanged from last week, inflation is seen almost a full point above the target, while GDP growth is down, from 3.7% four weeks ago to 3.3%.
REAL GDP GROWTH 2012
Latin America countries Others countries
Panama 10.7% Mongolia 12.3%
Peru 6.2% Angola 8.4%
Chile 5.6% China 7.8%
Venezuela 5.5% India 4.0%
Bolivia 5.2% Australia 3.6%
Nicaragua 5.2% Russia 3.4%
Costa Rica 5.1% U.S.A. 2.2%
Ecuador 4.8% Japan 2.0%
Colombia 4.0% Canada 1.8%
Mexico 3.9% Germany 0.9%
Uruguay 3.9% U.K. 0.2%
Argentina 1.9% France 0.0%
Brazil 0.9% Spain -1.4%
Paraguay -1.2% Italy -2.3%
Portugal -3.2%
