This post is a summary of the book with the title above published in 2014 at http://pardee.du.edu/sites/default/files/PPHP5ExecutiveSummary_0.pdf
The book explores the future around the world of domestic governance, conceptualized as a two-way interaction between governments and society. It identifies three dimensions of governance - the provision of security (includingthe reduction of violent conflict), the building of capacity (including the control of corruption) and the broadening and deepening of inclusion - as fundamental to the moden state, and it examines how countries have made, are in the process of making, or have yet to undertake these transitions. We begin this summary with several key messages about longer-term governance futures: the important roles good governance can play in establishing an environment conducive to development and the implications of alternative governance scenarios for human development more broadly. The world has seen sustained movement toward improved governance globally, especially since the end of cold war in 1989. However, today's transitions are different than the broad historical patterns. Whereas contemporary high-income countries progressed sequentially through three historical governance transitions (first improved security, then greater capacity, and finally wider inclusion), today's developing countries are dealing with all three simultaneously. Improved governance facilitates delivery of essential services and improvements in the lives of citizens and enhances the stability and resilience of societies. Globally, there is great positive momentum in both human development and governance improvement. Today's positive trends in education, health, income, and governance help drive virtuous feedback loops that our Base Case scenario suggest are likely to function in coming decades. Good governance can facilitate human development by providing reliable market regulation, infrastructure, education, healthcare, and an institutional means of resolving conflict. Poor governance, on the other hand, can prove a barrier to development through insecurity, ineffectiveness, corruption, and exclusionary practices. The global evolution of governance over the last few hundred years has generally been toward greater sovereignty and domestic jurisdictional security; toward leaders paying closer attention to needs of their populaces and toward greater effectiveness in meeting those needs; and toward competitive, democratic elections and growing inclusion. In strengthening governance globally, we focus on these three transitions involving greater security, stronger capacity, and broader and deeper inclusion because they are fundamental to the development of the modern state. For capable governance, effective use of revenues by governments and a rule of law are also necessary. Over time, developing coutries as a whole have lagged behind high-income countries in terms of corruption reduction, but, high-income countries also still have room for improvement. The transition toward broader inclusion has historically come later than the transition to greater security and enhanced capacity. As states become more secure and effective, failure to also allow greater inclusion can undermine that earlier progress. Sociopolitical supports for inclusion include the free-flow of information, freedom of association, extensive participation in politics, and a cooperative culture of political behavior, each of which can feed into a movement toward democracy. Our forecast of governance is quite positive, with virtuous feedback loops dominating global development patterns over the next 50 years. Much of this positive outlook is due to the progress in key dimensions of human development, in particular, education and health. Rising enrollment in education, improving health and lengthening life-spans, climbing income levels, and falling fertility rates, along with other ongoing socioeconomic changes, all favor stronger governance and further development. Government effectiveness (the ability to use revenue well) is another important aspect of the capacity dimension of governance. The measures government effectiveness is primarily in terms of the level of corruption. The forecast shows most countries progressing toward less corruption as a result of increases in education and income that tend to lead to demands for accountability. The greatest reductions in corruption are likely to be seen in the developing countries of East and Central Asia, Latin America and Europe. The forecast of governance provide us with a reasonable window into the coevolution of advance in human development and governance. However, it is only one window among many possible ones. The Global Challenges scenario is built around a number of storm clouds that are appearing on the forecasting horizon. These storm clouds include: aging populations and the fiscal pressures associated with them; the peaking of oil and gas production and the need to develop alternative, sustainable energy; the rise to global leadership of emerging countries with less democratic histories than those of the countries now in leadership; growing pressure on fresh water supplies; and climate change. We find that the Global Challenges sceanrio does not stop global progress in human development, but it does slow it. Under Global Challenges, the world as a whole could lose more than 40% of the forecasted gains in HDI seen in our forecast. Most striking in our forecasts may be the narrowing on the security dimension, on which we forecast that upper-middle-income countries will converge with high-income countries and that other country categories will make much progress. Our forecasts also antecipate very substantial progress for upper-middle-income countries on the capacity dimension, even as high-income countries advance and raise the bar for all regions of the world. To analyze the four sub-Saharan African countries with the largest population (D.R.Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa). In 2010, these countries lagged far behind the BRIC countries in terms of capacity and especially security. By 2060, we anticipate considerable progress on the continent; with the exception of D.R.Congo, security for Africa's largest countries could be above the level of Brazil today. By 2060, using our Base Case forecast values of the index, no developing region other than Latin America is likely to have reached the average level of governance experienced by high-income countries in 2010.
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