Global Predictions for 2024

                 I'd like to thank everyone who use their time this year to defend democracy, political inclusion, truth, human rights and justice. We all have to reinforce our humanistic values and principles. I'd like to desire also a happy new year for all readers of this blog. Happy 2024 for us all. ✊✊✊✊✊ This post is a summary of three articles. The first was published with the incomplete title above at https://www.ipsos.com/en/ipsos-global-predictions-2024. The second was published at https://hbr.org/2023/12/what-to-expect-from-the-global-economy-in-2024. The third was published at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/top-10-economic-predictions-for-2024.html

                  The yesr of 2023 marked a significant downturn in the impact of COVID-19, as the World Health Organization (WHO) officially ended its status of global emergency. However, this decline in health crises was unfortunately accompanied by an escalation in geopolitical tensions. Russia's aggressive invasion into Ukraine showed no signs of abating, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty and insecurity. Further exacerbating the already turbulent global situation was the outbreak of Israel-Palestinian conflict in October. Meanwhile, weather patterns continued to become increasingly volatile. Large portions of the globe persistently endured escalating summer temperatures year after year, suggesting a potential worsening of global warming. In 2023, the world of technology also saw dramatic changes and advancements. Open A.I. was instrumental in transforming the public perception and utilisation, leading to more paradigm shift in the way we interact with technology. Overall, optimism for the coming year appears to be on the rise, with 70% think 2024 will be a better year than 2023. Overall, improvements in optimism is the greatest among European countries, particularly in Poland, Spain, U.K. and Sweden. 50% expect the global economy will be stronger in 2024 than it was in 2023. As we head into 2024, headline inflation has started to come down in many countries. Out of 34 surveyed countries, 10 demonstrated at least a 10% improvement in perceptions of inflation rates, most significantly in European countries. Furthermore, countries like Brazil 19% and Australia 14% are also exhibiting compelling improvements in the public's perception of inflation rates. There is now a reasonable expextation that the alarming seriousness of the climate emergency will provoke action. 55% expect their government to set more demanding targets for carbon emissions in 2024. Given the extreme weather events that the public has observed in recent years, there is a growing urgency for the government to provide more direction on how to mitigate climate  change.                                                                                                          As 2023 comes to a close, the global economy is doing better than expected. The U.S. not only avoided a recession but has grown a steady clip. Unemployment has been low and crucially, inflation is falling in most of the world. The Federal Reserve is ending the year on a fairly optimistic note, by not only holding interest rates steady but signaling the possibility of multiple rate cuts in 2024.  The British magazine The Economist has argued, the longer term outlook for workers in the U.S. and Europe looks strong. Politics will remain a major driver of economic uncertainty in 2024, including via the U.S. presidential election which could have unpredictable consequences for geopolitics, trade, and the wars in Ukraine and the Mideast.  What else? Josh Lipsky, director at the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center, summed up his view of the biggest risks to the economy in a recent newsletter: "China's inaccurate data masking sputtering growth, the world's major shipping companies stopping transit in the Red Sea, and the second largest economy in South America at serious risk of default."                                                                                                                                                  Inflation will moderate further, the downward trend is expected to continue through 2024. Lower inflation rates in 2024 are forecast across most regions of the world. Weaker annual real GDP growth rates are forecast across all the largest regions in 2024. Global annual real GDP is forecast to grow at 2.3% compared with an estimated 2.7% in 2023. In Latin America inflation rates have fallen relatively rapidly, while labor market conditions are generally not tight. Easing cycles that are already under way in Chile, Brazil and Peru are forecast to continue in the year ahead. The U.S. Dollar will depreciate and it will be reinforced by a relative slowing of both economic growth and inflation as well as the overhang of a current-account deficit which, as a share of U.S. GDP, is unsustainably high. Geopolitical factors will remain an important source of risk and uncertainty, potentially aggravated by important elections taking place across an unusually number of countries. Election campaigns will set the policy agenda across several important emerging economies, including India and Indonesia in the spring and Mexico in midyear, with elections to the European Parliament scheduled in June. Uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S. election, along with the policy implications, will likely be a hindrance to economic prospects. The energy transition will support growth in the U.S. and Canada.                          

P.I.S.A. 2022 Results: The State of Learning and Equity in Education

                      As everyone knows I supported the high school reform since the project and its approval into law in 2017. But we have to remember that the original project was only the traditional subjects chosen by students according to which area they want to study after the high school. But for better students in the high school we need also better students in the fundamental two, it is from 5º to 9º grades. And for this we need everyone involved in this goal: parents, brothers and sisters, teachers, politicians, and mainly students aware about the importance of the education for their lives. This post is a summary of the book with the title above published in 2023 at https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=1235_1235421-gumq51fbgo&title=PISA-2022-Results-Volume-I . Brazil results in all PISA tests since 2000 are on page 403. Performance in Math fell by 7 points in the last decade, meanwhile the performance in science is 2 points higher and in reading is 5 points higher than ten years ago.

                    In 2022, as countries were still dealing with the lingering impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, nearly 700000 students from 81 economies, representing 29 million across the world, took the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) test. The report finds that in spite of the challenging circumstances, 31 countries and economies managed to at least maintain their performance in math since 2018. Among these, Australia, Japan, Korea and Switzerland maintained or further raised already high levels of student performance, with scores ranging from 487 to 575 points (OECD average 472). Many countries also made significant progress towards universal secondary education, among them, Colombia, Costa Rica, Indonesia, Morocco, Paraguay and Romania have rapidly expanded education to previously marginalised populations over the past decade. At the same time, on average, the PISA 2022 assessment saw an unprecedented drop in performance across the OECD. Compared to 2018, performance fell by ten points in reading and by almost 15 points in math, which is equivalent to three-quarters of a year's worth of learning. Yet the decline can only partially be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. Scores in reading and science had already been falling prior to the pandemic. Across the OECD, around half of the students experienced closures for more than three months. However, PISA results show no clear difference in performance trends between education systems with limited schoolm closures such as Sweden and Taiwan and systems that experienced longer shcool closures, such as Brazil and Ireland. School closures also drove a global conversation to digitally enabled remote learning, adding to long-term challenges that had already emerged, such as the use of tech in classroom. How education systems grapple with technological change and whether policymakers find the right balance between risks and opportunities will be a defining feature of effective education systems. PISA data shows that teachers' support is important by providing extra pedagogical and motivational support to student. The availability of teachers to help students in need had the strongest relationship to math performance across OECD. Overall, education systems with positive trends in parental engagement in student learning  showed greater stability or improvement in math performance. This was particularly true for disadvantage students. These figures show that the level of active support that parents offer their children might have a decisive effect. To strengthen the role of education in empowering young people to succeed and ensuring merit-based equality of opportunity, the resilience of our education systems will be critical not only to improve learning outcomes measured through PISA, but to their long-term effectiveness. Education systems in Canada, Denmark, Finland, Hong Kong, Ireland, Japan, Korea, Latvia, and the U.K.  are highly equitable according to PISA's definition. They have achieved high levels of socio-economic fairness together with a large share of all 15 year-olds with basic proficiency in math, reading and science. Boys outperformance girls in math by nine score points and girls outperformance boys in reading by 24 points on average. In science, the performance difference between boys and girls is not significant. Equity is a fundamental value and goal of education policy. Equity in education is an ethical principle associated to the concept of justice. International differences in the extent and types of educational inequity today can be traced back to the historical legacies of different nations. For example, in Latin America primary school enrolments did not substantially increase until the second half of the 20th century, this has made the universalisation of secondary schooling a contemporary challenge. Only education systems that combine high levels of fairness and inclusion are considered highly equitable. Between 2018 and 2022 only four countries improved their performance in all three subjects: Brunei, Cambodia, Dominican Republic and Taiwan. 

Human Rights Day 2023

                            Last Sunday, precisely 10 of December, all over the world celebrated the human rights. This post is a summary of three articles. The first was published at    https://www.un.org/en/observances/human-rights-day The second was published at   https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/human-rights-day-2023-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-day-18530701.htm. The third was published athttps://reliefweb.int/report/world/human-rights-day-2023

                        10 December 2023 marks the 75th anniversary of one of the world's most groundbreaking global pledges: the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR). This landmark document enshrines the inalienable rights that everyone is entitled to as a human being, regardless of race, religion, sex, political or other opinion, national or social origin, property, or other status. Available in more than 500 languages, it is the most translated document in the world. In the decades since the adoption of UDHR in 1948, human rights have become more recognised and more guaranteed across the globe. The UDHR has since served as the foundation for an expanding system of human rights protection that today focuses also on vulnerable groups such as persons with disabilities, indigenous peoples and migrants. However, the promise of the UDHR, of dignity and equality in rights, has been under a sustained assault in recent years. As the world faces challenges new and ongoing - pandemics, conflicts, exploding inequalities, morally bankrupt global financial system, climate change - the values and rights enshrined in the UDHR provide guideposts for our collective actions that do not leave anyone behind. The UDHR enshrines the rights of all human beings. From the right to education to egual pay, UDHR established for the first time the indivisible and inalienable rights of all humanity. The UDHR has inspired many struggles for stronger human rights protection and helped them to be more recognized. Wherever humanity's values are abandoned, we all are at greater risk. The solution to today's greatest crises are rooted in human rights. We all need to stand up for our rights and those of others. We need an economy that invests in human rights and works for everyone.                                       c                                                                                                                      The Human Rights Day is celebrated around the world on December 10 every year. It focuses on the fundamental rights and liberties of people and advocates for the rights that transcend nationality, gender, ethnicity, sexuality, religion, or any other distinctions. The theme to celebrate This day in 2023 is 'Freedom, Equality and Justice for All.' In 1950, Human Rights Day was formally established. The UDHR consists of 30 articles that cover a wide range of fundamental human rights and freedom to which all people from different parts of the world are entitled. The UDHR also serves as a regulatory body for all other nations that strive to meet basic human needs, including socio-economic and political issues.                                                                                                                                             "Now more than ever, it is time for human rights," said U.N. Human Rights Chief, Volker Turk, ahead of a two-day event on human rights to be held at U.N.'s home in Geneva, Switzerland, and connecting online to hubs in Addis Abeba, Bangkok and Panama. Heads of State, civil society actors and human rights defenders, business leaders and economists alike will converge on the city to craft together a vision for the future of human rights. 75 years ago, representatives from different legal and cultural backgrounds from all regions of the world drafted the UDHR, a set of universal, indivisible and inalienable rights recognizing the equal dignity and worth of everyone. The UDHR was a milestone in the history of human rights. The drafting of the UDHR was also ground-breaking in the involvement of women in the shaping of its language and the inclusion of certain social and cultural rights, as well as input from representatives from what is now known as the global south. "Despite conflicts that may divide us, it is in the pursuit of peace, justice and equality that we discover our common ground," Turk said. "Together, we can envision a future where every individual's rights are safeguarded, conflicts are resolved through dialogue, and peace prevails." Turk also pointed that the world today is experiencing levels of violent conflict not seen since the end of the Second World War, with deepening inequalities, increasing hate speech, impunity, growing divisions and polarization and a climate emergency. "This underscore all the more the need for us to take stock, learn lessons, and craft a vision for the future together based on human rights. The UDHR provides a promise, and a blueprint for action. This event is a moment of deep reflection to seek common solutions together, centred on human rights," he stressed. 

Justice in the 21st Century

                 This post is a summary of the book with the title above, published in 2022 at https://www.enop.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/ENoP_Progresiva-Povod-IJEK-NOVUM_Justice-in-the-21st-Century.pdf

                 The history of mankind has always been interested in the question of justice and fairness, yet despite all of the effort invested, we could probably agree that so far, we have not managed to find an answer with which we would all agree or which would universally correspond to all societies. This happens because this is one of those questions for which resigned wisdom holds true that one can never find a final answer but can merely strive to ask better questions. The "Justice in the 21st Century" project, of which this anthology is a part, was developed during a period in which we are facing some of the flaws uncovered or deepened in our system by the COVID-19 pandemic.  These realisation, as well as our awareness of them, are an ideal opportunity for us to open a discussion on how we will regulate justice and fairness in our society, how we will provide for equality, etc. In addition, the 50th anniversary of the book "A Theory of Justice" written by John Rawls was commemorated in 2021; this book is one of the fundamental works on the regulation of mutual relations in a liberal social arrangement as we know it today. The historically important crossroads represented by the COVID-19 pandemic is an ideal opportunity to ask ourselves: is the concept of justice that we know today still relevant when it comes to sorting out social relationships in the 21st century? Finding inspirations for the implementation of a project honouring the 50th anniversary of the publication of "A Theory of Justice" does not depend on whether we agree with its principles or not, but is mainly connected with Raws's idea of finding or developing a systematic political theory which will structure our different intuitions. Rawls wanted to provide with his most famous work an answer to the entrapment of the political theory between utilitarianism on the one hand and s confusion of ideas and principles on the other which he called "intuitionism", an approach which is hardly more than a set of anedocdotes concentrated on intuitions about individual questions. The purpose of the "Justice in the 21st Century" project was to shed some light on the current state of affairs in our society and to open a discussion about justice as a concept that regulates relationships in society, its core values and principles according to which it functions. Theories of justice are among the most often discussed theories of the 21st century. They are the successors of social contract theories which mostly emerged in the 17th and 18th centuries and gave new meaning to the relationship between the governors and the governed. What can we do to prevent a transition to the new yet old social system which is poised to be even less fair than the now-prevailing capitalism? First, we must immediately put privacy at the forefront for it to become a cornerstone of digital democracy. With the boom of internet in the 21st century, the concept of privacy became almost redundant. Second, countries should become more involved in the control of the power of technological giants that have quite literally outgrown them in this past decade. A fair digital economy is one of the guidelines of the plan of the European Commission up to 2024 with which the European Union is trying to take a step into the future. In the text, "fairness" is understood as an equal approach to technologies and services. Justice is extremely important for people. Evolutionarily speaking, communities are more successful if their members cooperate with one another. Voluntary cooperation reduces the amount of energy that must be used to coerce people, keep them in check, and resolve disputes. People are more likely to voluntarily cooperate with others if they can count on the fact that others will treat them justly. Providing a fair digital economy that will actually reflect the wishes of its creators should therefore juggle several areas at the same time while keeping in mind a common goal, the provision of a fair digital environment for all users. It is not enough for companies to commit themselves to ethical development only to discover, time and time again, that they do not have the necessary tools or procedures for its implementation, or that they are doing it without being aware of how their automated solutions affect society at large. It is hard enough for consumers to pressure private companies or have our political representatives deal with regulatory frameworks while the industry keeps on finding innovative solutions to avoid efficient control, and continuously endangering the human rights and privacy of their users. Based on what we have discussed in this paper, we should be careful when using the term "justice" in the 21st century, so as to not abuse it by combining it with ideological goals. For peaceful and productive cooperation in a society, people need to feel like they are being treated justly. This feeling is not only destroyed by real injustice but also by a different, forced and made up definition of justice. Community-based organisations are vital for recovery during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The gentrification of autonomous cultural and social centres coinciding with the restrictions of assembly challenges the community support, especially regarding the support in the form of free-thinking platforms. Autonomous Factory Rog was an essential place to produce justice in spatial development within itself and in the broader city of Ljubljana; it created alternative cultural and artistic spaces for the least privileged, thus contributing to a just distribution of goods according to Rawls' theory of distributive justice and to the self-governance principles of Ostrom. Autonomous Factory Rog (AFR) contributed to pure procedural justice of spatial development by channeling unheard voices on unjust policies that impact them; it provided a space where those who experience oppression are the ones who lead the change. Through socio-political discourse analysis and based on the socio-ecological model to prevent violence, we argued that AFR was also an essential place to protect free thinking and prevent political attacks on free journalism. The NGOs of Metelkova 6 are resisting the eviction to protect the autonomous value of the common place where the NGOs are located. The resilience of these NGOs is essential to maintaining procedural and distributive justice in the city of Ljubljana. The resistance against eviction maintain justice in spatial distribution because it fulfills the original position of justice according to Rawls, which means assuring fundamental rights for free-thinking, culture and arts. Finally, the NGOs' resistance against eviction not only protects the value of the place where it is located but also contributes to our wider society, resisting to preserve critical thinking, free media, arts and culture, and underprivilege's rights for justice and inclusion in an accessible city for all.