Global Predictions for 2024

                 I'd like to thank everyone who use their time this year to defend democracy, political inclusion, truth, human rights and justice. We all have to reinforce our humanistic values and principles. I'd like to desire also a happy new year for all readers of this blog. Happy 2024 for us all. ✊✊✊✊✊ This post is a summary of three articles. The first was published with the incomplete title above at https://www.ipsos.com/en/ipsos-global-predictions-2024. The second was published at https://hbr.org/2023/12/what-to-expect-from-the-global-economy-in-2024. The third was published at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/top-10-economic-predictions-for-2024.html

                  The yesr of 2023 marked a significant downturn in the impact of COVID-19, as the World Health Organization (WHO) officially ended its status of global emergency. However, this decline in health crises was unfortunately accompanied by an escalation in geopolitical tensions. Russia's aggressive invasion into Ukraine showed no signs of abating, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty and insecurity. Further exacerbating the already turbulent global situation was the outbreak of Israel-Palestinian conflict in October. Meanwhile, weather patterns continued to become increasingly volatile. Large portions of the globe persistently endured escalating summer temperatures year after year, suggesting a potential worsening of global warming. In 2023, the world of technology also saw dramatic changes and advancements. Open A.I. was instrumental in transforming the public perception and utilisation, leading to more paradigm shift in the way we interact with technology. Overall, optimism for the coming year appears to be on the rise, with 70% think 2024 will be a better year than 2023. Overall, improvements in optimism is the greatest among European countries, particularly in Poland, Spain, U.K. and Sweden. 50% expect the global economy will be stronger in 2024 than it was in 2023. As we head into 2024, headline inflation has started to come down in many countries. Out of 34 surveyed countries, 10 demonstrated at least a 10% improvement in perceptions of inflation rates, most significantly in European countries. Furthermore, countries like Brazil 19% and Australia 14% are also exhibiting compelling improvements in the public's perception of inflation rates. There is now a reasonable expextation that the alarming seriousness of the climate emergency will provoke action. 55% expect their government to set more demanding targets for carbon emissions in 2024. Given the extreme weather events that the public has observed in recent years, there is a growing urgency for the government to provide more direction on how to mitigate climate  change.                                                                                                          As 2023 comes to a close, the global economy is doing better than expected. The U.S. not only avoided a recession but has grown a steady clip. Unemployment has been low and crucially, inflation is falling in most of the world. The Federal Reserve is ending the year on a fairly optimistic note, by not only holding interest rates steady but signaling the possibility of multiple rate cuts in 2024.  The British magazine The Economist has argued, the longer term outlook for workers in the U.S. and Europe looks strong. Politics will remain a major driver of economic uncertainty in 2024, including via the U.S. presidential election which could have unpredictable consequences for geopolitics, trade, and the wars in Ukraine and the Mideast.  What else? Josh Lipsky, director at the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center, summed up his view of the biggest risks to the economy in a recent newsletter: "China's inaccurate data masking sputtering growth, the world's major shipping companies stopping transit in the Red Sea, and the second largest economy in South America at serious risk of default."                                                                                                                                                  Inflation will moderate further, the downward trend is expected to continue through 2024. Lower inflation rates in 2024 are forecast across most regions of the world. Weaker annual real GDP growth rates are forecast across all the largest regions in 2024. Global annual real GDP is forecast to grow at 2.3% compared with an estimated 2.7% in 2023. In Latin America inflation rates have fallen relatively rapidly, while labor market conditions are generally not tight. Easing cycles that are already under way in Chile, Brazil and Peru are forecast to continue in the year ahead. The U.S. Dollar will depreciate and it will be reinforced by a relative slowing of both economic growth and inflation as well as the overhang of a current-account deficit which, as a share of U.S. GDP, is unsustainably high. Geopolitical factors will remain an important source of risk and uncertainty, potentially aggravated by important elections taking place across an unusually number of countries. Election campaigns will set the policy agenda across several important emerging economies, including India and Indonesia in the spring and Mexico in midyear, with elections to the European Parliament scheduled in June. Uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S. election, along with the policy implications, will likely be a hindrance to economic prospects. The energy transition will support growth in the U.S. and Canada.