This post is a summary of a book published with the title of, "World Economic Outlook: Uneven Growth, Short-term and long-term factors." And published in April 2015 at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/pdf/text.pdf. Again, as happened in 2013, we can see the Brazilian GDP growth among the lowest in the world.
The complexity of the forces shaping macroeconomic evolutions around the world and the resulting difficulty of distilling a simple bottom line. Two forces are shaping these ecolutions and the euro area crisis are still visible in many countries. To varying degrees, weak banks and high levels of debt; public, corporate, or household, still weigh on spending and growth. Low growth, in turn, makes deleveraging a slow process. Potential output growth has declined. Potential growth in advanced economies was already declining before the crisis. The crisis made it worse, with the decrease in investment leading to even lower capital growth. The effects are even more pronounced in emerging markets, where aging, lower capital accumulation, and lower productivity growth are combining to lower potential growth in the future. The sharp decline in the oil price came as a surprise, and most of explanations suggest that the decline will likely be long lasting. Exchange rate movements have been unusually large. The dollar has seen a major appreciation and the euro a major depreciation. Some countries' currencies move with the dollar, others with the euro. Add to this a couple of idiosyncratic developments, such as the economic troubles in Russia or the weakness of Brazil. On net, our baseline forecasts are that advanced economies will do better this year than last year, and that emerging markets will slow down to last year. Global growth remains moderate, with eneven prospects across the main countries and regions. It is projected to be 3.5% in 2015. A number of complex forces are shaping the outlook. These invlude medium and long trends, global shocks and many country specific factors. This growth outlook for emerging markets reflects more subdued prospects for some large emerging economies as well as weaker activity in some major oil exporters because the drop in oil prices. China is expected to put greater weight on reducing vulnerabilities from recent rapid credit and investment growth. Hence the forecast assumes a slowdown in investment, particularly in real estate. The outlook for Brazil is affected by a drought, the tightening of macroeconomic policies, and weak private sector sentiment, related in part to the fallout from the Petrobras investigation. The growth for Russia reflect the economic impact of oil prices and geopolitical tensions. Growth in L. A. slowed to 1.3% in 2014 and its projected to soften to an even lower rate in 2015. The downturn in global commofity markets remains the main drag on activity in South America, even though lower oil prices and U.S. recovery provide a boost to other parts of the region. Low business and consumer confidence in Brazil weigh further on the near-term outlook. Brazil's economy is projected to contract by 1% in 2015. Private sector sentiment has remained stubbornly weak, even since election-related uncertainty dissipated, reflecting the risk of electricity and water rationing, unaddressed competitiveness challenges, and fallout from Petrobras investigation. The Brazilian authorities renewed commitment to rein in the fiscal deficit and reduce inflation will help restore confidence in Brazil's macroeconomic policy framework, but it will further curb near-term demand.
PanAmerican Countries GDP Growth 2014 Others Countries
Panama 6.4% Ethiopia 10.3%
Bolivia 5.4% China 7.4%
Colombia 4.6% India 7.2%
Paraguay 4.4% Nigeria 6.3%
Costa Rica 3.7% Philippines 6.1%
Guyana 3.6% Ireland 4.8%
Ecuador 3.6% Algeria 4.1%
Uruguay 3.3% Korea 3.3%
Canada 2.5% Turkey 2.9%
U.S.A. 2.4% United Kingdom 2.6%
Peru 2.4% Germany 1.6%
Mexico 2.1% Spain 1.4%
Chile 1.8% Portugal 0.9%
Argentina 0.5% Russia 0.6%
Brazil 0.1% France 0.4%
Venezuela - 4.0% Japan - 0.1%
Italy - 0.4%
Ukraine - 6.8%
