This post is a summary of the book with the title of, "Gaining Momentum?", and published in April of 2017 at http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/04/04/world-economic-outlook-april-2017
Consistently good economic news since summer 2016 is starting to add up to a brightening global outlook. The economic upswing that we have expected for some time seems to be materializing: indeed, the World Economic Outlook (WEO) raises its projection for 2017 global growth to 3.5%. At the same time, however, the upgrade to our 2017 forecast is modest, and longer-term potential growth rates remain subdued across the globe compared with past decades. Moreover, while there is a chance growth will exceed expectations in the near term, significant downside risks continue to cloud the medium0term outlook. One salient threat is a turn toward protectionism, leading to trade warfare. Governments should instead follow trade policies consistent with maximum productivity, supplementing those with other policies that better distribute the gains from foreign trade internally, improve the skills and adaptability of their workforce, and smooth the process of adjustment for those adversely affected by the need for economic reallocation. Unfortunately, governments often find it harder to make such domestic improvements than to restrict trade. Policymakers instead must do the hard work of investing in their economies, especially in people, to create greater resilience to a host of potential and ongoing structural changes. The U.S. economy is projected to expand at a faster pace in 2017 and 2018, with growth forecast at 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively. The stronger near-term outlook reflects the momentum from the second half of 2016, driven by a cyclical recovery in inventory accumulation, solid consumption growth, and the assumption of a looser fiscal policy stance. Among commodity exporters, Brazil is expected to emerge from one of its deepest recessions, with growth forescast at 0.2% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. The gradual recovery will be supported by reduced political uncertainty, easing monetary policy, and further progress on the reform agenda. After a contraction last year, activity in Argentina is also set to expand by 2.2% in 2017, thanks to stronger consumption and public investment. In Brazil, the pace of contraction has diminished, but investment and output had yet to bottom out at the end of 2016, while fiscal crisis in some states continue to deepen. Inflation has continued to surprise on the downside, allowing for prospects of faster monetary easing. Reforms to boost potential growth are needed not only to restore and improve living standards after the deep recession, but also to facilitate the fiscal consolidation. Imperatives for lifting investment and productivity include addressing long-standing infrastructure bottlenecks, simplifying the tax code, and reducing barriers to trade. Emerging markets and developing economies have become increasingly important in the global economy in recent years. They now account for more than 75% of global growth in output and consumption, almost double the share of just two decades ago.
Below the GDP growth in 2016 in many countries, from the highest to the lowest GDP growth from previous year.
PanAmerican countries Rest of the world
Dominican Republic 6.6% Ethiopia 8.0%
Panama 5.0% India 6.8%
Nicaragua 4.7% Philippines 6.8%
Costa Rica 4.3% China 6.7%
Paraguay 4.1% Ireland 5.2%
Bolivia 4.1% Romania 4.8%
Peru 3.9% New Zealand 4.0%
Honduras 3.5% Sweden 3.3%
Guyana 3.3% Spain 3.2%
Mexico 2.3% South Korea 2.8%
Colombia 2.0% Ukraine 2.3%
U.S.A. 1.6% Netherlands 2.1%
Chile 1.6% Germany 1.8%
Canada 1.4% U.K. 1.8%
Uruguay 1.4% Portugal 1.4%
Ecuador -2.2% Switzerland 1.3%
Argentina -2.3% France 1.2%
Brazil -3.6% Japan 1.0%
Trinidad -5.1% Italy 0.9%
Venezuela -18% Russia -0.2%
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