This post is a summary of the book with the title of,"World Economic Outlook - Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery." Published in April 2019 at https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019
One year ago economic activity was accelerating in almost all regions of the world and global economy was projected to grow at 3.9% in 2018 and 2019. One year later, much has changed: the escalation of US-China trade tensions, macroeconomic stress in Argentina and Turkey, disruptions to the auto sector in Germany, tigher credit policies in China, and financial tightening policy in the larger advanced economies have all contributed to a significantly weakened global expansion, especially in the second half of 2018. With this weakness expected to persist into the first half of 2019, the WEO projects a decline in growth in 2019 for 70% of the global economy. Global growth, which peaked at close 4% in 2017, softened to 3.6% in 2018, and is projected to decline further to 3.3% in 2019. While 2019 started out on a weak footing, a pickup is supported by significant policy accomodation by major economies, made possible by the absence of inflationary pressure despite closing output gal. U.S. Federal Reserve, in response to rising global risks, paused interest rate increases and signaled no increases for the rest of the year. The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England have all shifted to a more accomodative stance. These policy responses have helped reverse the tigtening of financial conditions to varying degrees across countries. Emerging markets have experienced a resumption in portfolio flows, a decline in sovereign borrowing costs, and a strengthening of their currencies relative to the dollar. In Latin America, growth is projected to recovery over the next two years, to 1.4% in 2019 and 2.4% in 2020. In Brazil, growth is projected to strengthen from 1.1% in 2018 to 2.1% in 2019 and 2.5% in 2020. For emerging markets and developing 4.8% over the medium term. The medium-term growth forecast for developing economies reflects important diferences across regions. In emerging Asia, growth is expected to remain above 6% through the forecast. In Brazil, the main priority is to contain rising public debt while ensuring that needed social spending remain intact. The spending cap introduced in 2016, which envisages a 0.5% 0f GDP a year improvement in the primary fiscal balance, is a step in the right direction towards facilitating fiscal consolidation. With inflation still close to target, monetary policy can stay accomodative to support aggregate demand as needed. Building on recent reforms to labor and subsidized credit markets, efforts to improve infrastructure and the efficiency of financial intermediation would help lift productivity and boost medium-term growth prospects. Below the GDP growth in 2018 from the greatest growth to the lowest of each list. The first list is for countries in the Americas and the other is for the rest of the world.
GDP 2018 in PanAmerican countries Rest of the World
Bolivia 4.3% Libya 17.9%
Peru 4.0% Ethiopia 7.7%
Chile 4.0% Vietnam 7.1%
Panama 3.9% India 7.1%
Paraguay 3.7% China 6.6%
Honduras 3.7% Ireland 6.6%
Guatemala 3.1% New Zealand 3.0%
U.S.A. 2.9% Australia 2.8%
Colombia 2.7% South Korea 2.7%
Uruguay 2.1% Spain 2.5%
Mexico 2.0% Sweden 2.3%
Canada 1.8% Portugal 2.1%
Brazil 1.1% France 1.5%
Argentina -2.5% U.K. 1.4%
Nicaragua -4.0% Italy 0.9%
Venezuela -18% Japan 0.8%
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