Sunday, April 25, 2021

GDP Growth 2020

                 This post is a summary of the book with the title of, "World Economic Outlook - Managing Divergent Recoveries." Published in April 2021 at  https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021

                It is one year since COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic, a year of terrible loss of lives and livelihoods. The rising human toll worldwide and the millions of people that remain unemployed are grim markers of the extreme social and economic strain that the global community still confronts. Yet, even with high uncertainly about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is visible. Thanks to the ingenuity of the scientific community, we have multiple vaccines that can reduce the severity and frequency of infections. In parallel, adaption to pandemic life has enabled the global economy to do well despite subdued overall mobility, leading to a stronger-than-anticipated rebound, on average, across regions. We are now projecting a stronger recovery in 2021 and 2022 for the global economy compared to our previous forecast, with growth projected to be 6% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022. Multispeed recoveries are under way in all regions and across income groups, linked to stark differences in the pace of vaccine rollout, the extent of economic policy support, and structural factors such as reliance on tourism. Although medium-term losses for the global economy are expected to be smaller than in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the cross-country pattern of damages is, however, likely to be different this time, with low-income countries and emerging markets suffering more compared to the fallout from the crisis a decade earlier. Because the crisis has accelerated the forces of digitalization and automation, many of the jobs lost are unlikely to return, requiring workers reallocation across sectors. Once the health crisis is over, policy efforts can focus more on building inclusive and greener economies, both to bolster the recovery and raise potential output. The priorities should include investing in green infrastructure and strengthening social assistance to arrest rising inequality, introducing initiatives to boost productive capacity and resolving debt overhangs. For those with limited fiscal space, improved revenue administration, greater progressivity in taxation, and reorientation of expenditures will be essential. Even while all eyes are on the pandemic, countries should cooperate on climate change mitigation, digitalization, modernization of international corporate taxation and on measures to limit cross-border profit shifting, tax avoidance and evasion.                                                                                                                                                                                                           Below the GDP growth in 2020 from the greatest growth to the lowest of each list. The first list is for countries in the Americas and the other is for the rest of the world. Thanks to beginning of its oil exploration, a South America country had the biggest GDP growth of the world last year and probably will be the same this year. I hope corruption does not disrupt its path to development. What has happened in many other countries with the oil exploration. I don't know why in the final part of this summary and in the last paragraph with my commentary the letter became small, I wrote the whole text with the same letter size, as I always do, but something happened that became it impossible this time. Another problem I have had for many months is with the paragraphs, every summary I finish I spend a lot of time doing the paragraphs, because they are not the same when I am doing the text and after I publish. I think this problem started last year and I really don't understand how and why they are happening. Another problem that has happened every year with the lists below. I always do two lists parallel and when I publish they are mixed together. I think the correct would be they stayed the same way that I did before I published. This happens when the text is translated to Portuguese.


GDP 2020 in PanAmerican countries                                 Rest of the World
Guyana   43.4%                                                                       Ethiopia     6.1%          
Paraguay   -0.9%                                                                    Vietnam     2.9%
Guatemala   -1.5%                                                                    Ireland    2.5%
Nicaragua   -3.0%                                                                   China     2.3%                                         
  U.S.A.    -3.5%                                                                       Turkey    1.8%
Brazil   -4.1%                                                                              Iran     1.5%
Costa Rica   -4.8%%                                                                Tanzania     1.0%
Canada    -5.4%                                                                        Norway     -0.8%
Uruguay   -5.7%                                                                  South Korea      -1.0%
Chile     -5.8%                                                                          Australia      -2.4%
Colombia    -6.8%                                                                     Sweden      -2.8%
Ecuador    -7.5%                                                                         Japan      -4.8%
Bolivia     -7.7%                                                                        Germany      -4.9%
Honduras     -8.0%                                                                   Portugal       -7.6 % 
Mexico      -8.2%                                                                       India     -8.0%
Argentina     -10.0%                                                                France      -8.2%
Peru        -11.1%                                                                        Italy      -8.9%
Panama     -17.9%                                                                        U.K.     -9.9%
Venezuela    -30.0%                                                                   Spain     -11.0%

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