Since the creation of this blog in 2010, its counter of visualizations doesn't work and the same is happening with my YouTube channel since its creation in 2020. For no reason, I'm being harmed in so many ways and for so long. Why can I not have a YouTube channel and blog with their counter of visualizations working like everyone else? However, all the world is demanding justice and equality. The Brazilian institutions including from the government must do more to increase political inclusion, fairness, innovation and productivity. The world is demanding a fairer, inclusive and better Brazil, because they know about our huge potential and it must be heard for all. If you want to know my channel here is the link https://www.youtube.com/@lucianofietto4773/videos. This post is a summary of the book with the title above published in 2023 at https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/brazil/publication/brazil-future-towards-productivity-inclusion-sustainability
What will Brazil celebrate 20 years out? Brazil aims to become an OECD country in this period. Yet the momentum for income convergence with OECD countries is weak, with its fortunes having already turned since the end of the commodity cycle in 2015. Since then, it had two recessions (2014/2015 and 2020) and become poorer. The labor market remains weak. Gains in reducing poverty risk reversing. Fiscal buffers have shrunk and debt is high. Projecting the recent past makes the future looks unpromising, calling for decisive changes. This book argues that for Brazil's development agenda to regain steam it will need to better mobilize all Brazilians. Indeed, a more inclusive Brazil will mean a more prosperous Brazil. This requires overcoming the country's historical legacy of exclusion. Brazil developed an important middle class, but vulnerable to falling back into poverty. Social inclusion is the process of improving the terms for individuals to take part in society. Social exclusion refers to the terms that keep or prevent individuals to fully participate in society and benefit from opportunities. Exclusion remains strong n Brazil and can harm Brazil's future. It will also be hindered if people are prevented from drawing on their talents due to discrimination. Exclusion will also reduce the political space to enact reforms that enable future prosperity. The economy, political trust and individual economic circumstances play a major role in Brazilian's well-being. Education underpins the experienced welfare of individuals and the Brazilian development narrative. More educated Brazilians experience higher subjective well-being, and tertiary education matters relatively more for the subjective well-being of the bottom 40% of Brazilians. In fact, returns to education in Brazil, though falling, remain high by global standards. Education is seen as key to Brazil's development, it is not surprising that, across Brazilian society, education is also considered the most important intervention to reduce poverty. This report explores a range of factors that matters for a better future, judging by these key drivers of wellbeing. They include education, income security through jobs and social protection, political participation and trust. Low social cohesion can also be linked to low trust, a structural problem in Brazil. Latin America region stand out as a relatively low trust region. Brazil ranked among countries with the lowest trust globally. Trust was lower only in a few other countries such as Colombia, Ghana and the Philippines. Tackling economic exclusion can set in motion a virtuous cycle for a more prosperous Brazil. Intergenerational mobility, which measures the degree to which the socio-economic conditions determines the position for the rest of one's life is stubbornly low. And Brazil will likely stagnate, unless efforts succeed in giving Brazil a new direction. Greater economic inclusion can set in motion a virtuous circle that can promote both inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Higher financial and human capital investment and greater productivity are needed to promote inclusive and sustainable growth. Brazil is at a level of development where it bears to switch to higher productivity, but it struggle to do so in sectors beyond agriculture. Investing in human capital is thus essential to achieve stable and positive long-term growth. Brazil's fragmented social fabric hampers an inclusive development process. Unlike many OECD countries. Exclusion persisted socially, economically, and politically. Brazilian history in the 20th century points toward a tight association between restrictive political institutions and income concentration. Since the deep recession of 2014-16, poverty reduction has been elusive. GDP per capita receded 9%. Many of the causes were associated with structural factors: low productivity growth, rising unit labor costs, demand reliant on consumption rather than investment, and a steady expansion of government spending. In 2014-2019, the slow job creation and limited expansion of safety net likely contributed to 5.7 million individuals falling into poverty, and 4.2 million into extreme poverty. Two years later. the poverty rate was 19.6%, higher than in 2013. The Unified Health System (SUS) greatly reduced inequality in access to basic health care due to key institutional innovations. Its creation included around half of the Brazilian population, one of the few examples in of a successful transition from a fragmented model (depending on employment status) to a universal and free healthcare system. The results of this reform made Brazil a showcase. But, the system has faced budget constraints, and Brazil will have to find the means to fund its future operations. To enhance education, Brazilian youth, especially from more disadvantaged backgrounds, will need education counseling, supported by more open data on labor market outcomes of different careers. Schools remain the best place for providing active counseling of students for the next steps in their education, while employment services can develop specific services to support out-of-school youth in vocational decisions. Brazil's growth model has run out of steam. Growth has been slow since the end of the commodity cycle. A more globally integrated economy, more diversified exports, and higher value addition would be consistent with a more dynamic growth model. Agricultural and mineral commodities account for about two-thirds of its exports. Goods with higher value added tend to be export within Mercosur, with the exception of airplanes. Services exports are also minor. Integrating with global value chains could boost Brazil's economic growth by enabling it to move up the value chain and tap larger markets. To do this, Brazil needs to become more competitive, especially in the currently lagging urban-based sectors, industry and services, which requires investment and productivity gains. Labor accumulation have been a major source of growth in Brazil. However, the demographic dividends are nearly exhausted, and Brazil is now one of the fastest aging societies. Although there is still some potential for growth through capital accumulation and higher labor force participation, productivity will increasingly need to sustain growth, this is where Brazil has been lagging. The slowdown in labor force growth could be part offset by increasing the participation of disadvantaged groups. Despite considerable improvements since 1990s, labor force participation by disadvantaged groups is still low, Participation is around 50% among women, while is around 80% for men. Reducing barriers in the labor market and in education faced by disadvantaged groups can accelerate growth. Commodities sectors have been experiencing productivity gains. A key challenge is to broaden these gains to other parts of the economy. Between 1996 and 2020 labor productivity grew by 5.8% in agriculture and 3.5% in mining. In manufacturing in fact contracted by 0.9%. Services stagnated with some exceptions like the financial sector whose productivity grew by 1.9%. Moving to a higher productivity path requires the accumulation and diffusion of knowledge. The Shumpeterian growth paradigm is anchored on three principles. First, innovation and the diffusion of ideas from other countries are at the core of the growth process. Second, innovation depends on incentives and the appropriability of returns. Third, productivity growth depends on the process of creative destruction, as new ideas and technologies replace old ones. This creates a tension between incumbent firms and potential competitors, with incumbents historically trying to delay or block the entry of new products or competitors. Despite the opportunities, Brazil have low levels of innovation. Brazil ranks below most peers on the Global Innovation Index 2020, which includes a set of input indicators and a set of variables capturing innovation outputs. In a country like Brazil, investing in R&D and engineering capacities to accumulate innovation is essential not only to promote frontier innovation but also to support absorptive capabilities that are key for catching up. Innovation requires complementary factors and political reforms are also needed to ease the way for innovation.
No comments:
Post a Comment