This post is a summary of the book with the title above published in 2024 at https://cdn.sanity.io/files/2e5hi812/productio2024/0134f4cc56156db21ee23cf1072ab6d71704cd51.pdf
The 2024 elections falls fittingly into this era of uncertainty, with candidates and political parties using potentially transformational policy agendas. In most cases, the inherent and healthy uncertainty of elections sparks the kind of debate that drives democracy forward. In other contexts, however, it can motivate more hostile disputes and unrest. The credible elections index aggregates indicators that measure the extent to which elections are free from irregularities, such as flaws and biases in the voter registration and campaign processes, voter intimidation and fraudulent counting. The Index of Credible Elections is a key indicator to consider in evaluating the quality of representation around the world. In our most recent data, we find that 39 countries performed worse in this area than they had in 2018. For different reasons, Guatemala stands apart from the trends. It is an ambiguous case, in which there has been a significant decline in the Cridible Elections Index, but the final outcome of the 2023 election was that the person who received the most votes took office. One of the main features of the Guatemala process that illustrate another global trend is the judicialization of elections. President Arévalo and his party faced investigation by prosecutors, attempts to have his candidacy invalidated. Rights Index is an aggregate measure ofa fair system, respect for civil liberties, the extent to which the material and social supports of democracy are available and the degree to which political equality between social groups is realized. Freedom of Expression and Freedom of the Press refers to the right to openly discuss political issues and express political opinions outside the mass media and to considerations of the broader information environment. Freedom of the Press measures the extent to which the news media are diverse, honest, critical of the government and free from censorship, it also measure independence of the media. Although digital repression has become the favourite tool of authoritarian regimes, its use is not exclusive to such regimes. In recent years, democracies and autocracies alike have seen a rise in digital censorship, the use of spyware, disinformation and information manipulation. To better safeguard democracy against existing digital threats, democracies must reinforce the protection of citizens' rights. This includes shielding citizens from invasive digital surveillance, making online platform more accountable, creating safeguards for AI and adjusting data protection. Judicial Independence denotes the extent to which the courts are not subject to undue influence from the other branches of government. The most recent Global State of Democracy Index data reveal that several key phases of the electoral cycle are suffering from declines. Credible Elections scores (which measure competition, occurrence of fraud, government intimidation, fairness of legal framework) are among the most declining metrics around the world. These declines are compounded by significant downturns in other factors necessary for a legitimate electoral cycle, including indicators of Free Political Parties and respect for Freedom of Expression. Unsurprising, popular perceptions of electoral integrity are also suffering. There are several reasons why understanding electoral integrity is critical to democracy. First, while elections are not sufficient to qualify a political system as democratic, it is well established that they are a core minimum for any democracy. Second, a robust concept of electoral integrity is key for reform. Election organizations must understand where the weaknesses in the electoral process are so that they can work to strengthen those activities and procedures. A recent study found that vote counting has emerged as an area of significant decline. These recent findings are important to consider, especially in comparison with the GSoD data. The latter data set shows that metrics of Credible Elections, which include assessments of intentional irregularities and voter fraud, government intimidation and independence of electoral organizations. There are multiple, complex drivers of public perceptions of electoral integrity, Specifically, addressing voter and stakeholder concerns related to vote counting, which our data reveal to be areas that people pay the most attention to, will require new levels of action. Public perceptions matter for electoral integrity. It is, after all, voters who ultimately grant legitimacy to elected governments. In an age when electoral processes face a bevy of new challenges, and public trust in democratic institutions is declining, protecting electoral integrity is of utmost importance. While some experts pointed to campaign finance as among the weakest aspect of the electoral cycle, our data reveal that court challenges and the public are much more focused on voting counting. Voters pay attention to the regulations, and deviations matter in public assessments of the credibility of elections. If elections are to continue to act as the foundation stone of democratic systems, it is critical to reinforce public trust in them. Integrating popular opinion into the activities of the electoral cycle is one important step in this process.
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